Since 2015 the Nasdaq Index has undergone approximately 25% corrections from all-time-highs every 3 years. Over this time period, the price has more or less respected the trend lines shown above. But perhaps a force more powerful than the trendline is the timeline.
The pattern repeats at roughly 39-month intervals from top to top:
May '12 - July '15 (1175 days)
pivot from 5/1/12 ATH, 12%* correction over 35 days
July '15 - October '18 (1170 days)
pivot from 7/20/15 ATH, 26% correction over 34 days
October '18 - November '21 (1148 days)
pivot from 10/1/18 ATH, 24% correction over 84 days
November '21 - February '25 (1176 days)
pivot from 11/22/21 ATH, 38%** correction over 324 days
February '25 - May '28
pivot from 2/18/25 ATH, ??% correction
If the pattern holds true, we were due a correction last week. My guess is we'll double-top December's ATH and then start the correction. How deep for how long is anyone's guess. Feels more like '21 insanity than '15 or '18 to me.
Notes:
*2012 (I believe) not yet representative of participation in the trendline pattern (still recovering from Great Recession)
**This particular correction was covid-anomolous (we were 24% above the channel already when we pivoted). This particular -38%, 324-day correction was more like 3-in-1: -22% in 97 days, -27% in 80 days, -24% in 59 days. You may get a better pattern predictor if you average the 3 moves, so -24% over 77 days. Alternatively, you can see it as two moves: an intial -22% move to bring it back within the channel, followed by a second -24% move to bring it to the bottom of the channel.
The pattern repeats at roughly 39-month intervals from top to top:
May '12 - July '15 (1175 days)
pivot from 5/1/12 ATH, 12%* correction over 35 days
July '15 - October '18 (1170 days)
pivot from 7/20/15 ATH, 26% correction over 34 days
October '18 - November '21 (1148 days)
pivot from 10/1/18 ATH, 24% correction over 84 days
November '21 - February '25 (1176 days)
pivot from 11/22/21 ATH, 38%** correction over 324 days
February '25 - May '28
pivot from 2/18/25 ATH, ??% correction
If the pattern holds true, we were due a correction last week. My guess is we'll double-top December's ATH and then start the correction. How deep for how long is anyone's guess. Feels more like '21 insanity than '15 or '18 to me.
Notes:
*2012 (I believe) not yet representative of participation in the trendline pattern (still recovering from Great Recession)
**This particular correction was covid-anomolous (we were 24% above the channel already when we pivoted). This particular -38%, 324-day correction was more like 3-in-1: -22% in 97 days, -27% in 80 days, -24% in 59 days. You may get a better pattern predictor if you average the 3 moves, so -24% over 77 days. Alternatively, you can see it as two moves: an intial -22% move to bring it back within the channel, followed by a second -24% move to bring it to the bottom of the channel.
Trade attivo
I've been scaling in to June 20 Puts since 2/21. They didn't go as low as I was hoping and I didn't grab the bottom perfectly but waddyagonnado... You don't want that bottom to grab you back. It's been a reasonable and orderly descent so far, so I've been waiting for the head-fake. Looks (pre-market) like it may be today, especially given NVDA's earning after close. I'll continue buying puts on pops. Which come to think of it is a pretty good subtitle (and a damn good band name).
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.