FERRARI (
RACE): A Buying Opportunity or an Investor Trap?
Shares of the Italian legend slumped following the October Capital Markets Day, as the market was disappointed by a modest growth forecast.
During this key investor event, Ferrari made two major announcements that triggered the correction:
Conservative 2030 Targets: The company set a revenue target of approximately €9 billion. This implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only ~5%—significantly lower than in previous years.
EV Strategy Shift: The projected share of all-electric models by 2030 was halved, from 40% to 20%. The focus has shifted toward "horizontal diversification," emphasizing more limited-edition models.
The market perceived this as a slowdown in the growth story.
However, management emphasizes that growth will not be driven by volume, but by a richer product mix, personalization, and price increases.
What the market may have underestimated:
Despite the conservative forecasts, the company continues to demonstrate phenomenal operational efficiency.
Ahead of Schedule: At Investor Day, Ferrari raised its guidance, announcing it would hit its 2026 profitability targets a year early (in 2025).
Shareholder Returns: A €2 billion share buyback program (3.34% of market cap) has been completed, and a new €3.5 billion buyback program for 2026–2030 has been approved.
Dividends: The payout ratio increased from 35% to 40% of adjusted net profit.
Strong Demand: The order book is full until 2027. Scarcity and anticipation remains a core pillar of the brand’s value.
Key Figures:
🔎
RACE): A Buying Opportunity or an Investor Trap?Shares of the Italian legend slumped following the October Capital Markets Day, as the market was disappointed by a modest growth forecast.
During this key investor event, Ferrari made two major announcements that triggered the correction:
Conservative 2030 Targets: The company set a revenue target of approximately €9 billion. This implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only ~5%—significantly lower than in previous years.
EV Strategy Shift: The projected share of all-electric models by 2030 was halved, from 40% to 20%. The focus has shifted toward "horizontal diversification," emphasizing more limited-edition models.
The market perceived this as a slowdown in the growth story.
However, management emphasizes that growth will not be driven by volume, but by a richer product mix, personalization, and price increases.
What the market may have underestimated:
Despite the conservative forecasts, the company continues to demonstrate phenomenal operational efficiency.
Ahead of Schedule: At Investor Day, Ferrari raised its guidance, announcing it would hit its 2026 profitability targets a year early (in 2025).
Shareholder Returns: A €2 billion share buyback program (3.34% of market cap) has been completed, and a new €3.5 billion buyback program for 2026–2030 has been approved.
Dividends: The payout ratio increased from 35% to 40% of adjusted net profit.
Strong Demand: The order book is full until 2027. Scarcity and anticipation remains a core pillar of the brand’s value.
Key Figures:
🔎
🔎 Full Research :
🌐 t.me/A3MInvestments
🌐 t.me/A3MInvestments
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
🔎 Full Research :
🌐 t.me/A3MInvestments
🌐 t.me/A3MInvestments
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.