Ravencoin Wedges – When To Walk Away

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mNQRtNHg/

Ravencoin (RVN) has a unique rhythm. Over the past years, its wedge breakouts have not been random: they aligned with Fibonacci time ratios. Even more remarkable: every major breakout gave traders just 4 weeks to capture the majority of profits before fading.

In this article, I’ll outline:

How RVN wedges have respected Fibonacci in time.

Why the majority of profits disappear within 4 weeks.

A structured trading strategy to capture those moves.

My falsification criteria – when the thesis fails.

Fibonacci Timing in Wedges

Traders are familiar with Fibonacci retracements in price, but RVN shows a similar respect for Fibonacci in time. Let’s look at three wedges:

Wedge 1 (2019): breakout at ~0.75 of apex → close to 0.786 (fib).

Wedge 2 (2021): breakout at ~0.625 → near 0.618 (golden ratio).

Wedge 3 (current projection): ~0.702 → not classical, but widely used as the “sweet spot” between 0.618 and 0.786.

👉 RVN breakouts consistently happen within the 0.618–0.786 fib timing window.

The 4-Week Profit Window

Timing the breakout is only half the story. What happens after the breakout is just as important:

In 2019, RVN spiked strongly, but the majority of profits disappeared within 4 weeks.

In 2021, the same pattern: explosive breakout, then a retrace that erased most of the move in just 4 weeks.

The lesson is clear:

RVN wedges give traders about 1 month to take profits. Beyond that, history shows the rally fades.

Suggested Strategy

To turn history into a plan, here’s my structured exit approach:

10% at breakout (~$0.10) → reclaim initial investment.

20% per week → scale out systematically during weeks 1–4.

Remaining position → managed by price action (volume surges, momentum exhaustion, bearish candles).

This strategy ensures:

You lock in capital at the breakout.

You systematically capture the 4-week window.

You keep flexibility for exceptional moves without holding too long.

Invalidation – When the Thesis Fails

No setup is complete without a clear falsification rule.

For me, this thesis is invalid if:

RVN woggles sideways in the red zone (around wedge resistance) instead of breaking out, or

Price fails to attract volume and momentum after breakout.

In short: if the wedge breakout doesn’t confirm, the “4-week profit rule” cannot be expected to play out.

Risks & Counterpoints

Wedges are partly subjective; small differences in trendline drawing change apex timing.

Market conditions in 2025–2026 may differ from earlier cycles.

Fibonacci time zones are not “scientific laws” but empirical tendencies.

That said, the repetition across two major wedges adds real weight to the pattern.

Conclusion

Ravencoin shows a fascinating Fibonacci time structure: breakouts consistently occur between 0.618 and 0.786 of the wedge apex distance, followed by a 4-week profit window.

For traders, the rules are simple:

Don’t wait months.

Take profits fast.

Respect the 4-week window.

If the next breakout follows the same script, systematic scaling within the first month will once again separate winners from bagholders.