SNAP is going down

29 apr

Market Context SNAP
Current Price: $9.165

1-Month Move: +5.6% (from $8.68)

1-Year Move: -39.1% (from $15.05)

Year High/Low: $9.96/$7.16

Technicals:
RSI ~69.8 (near overbought)

Above 20-day MA, below 50/200-day MAs (short-term pop in a longer downtrend)

Options Data:
IV Rank: 75th percentile (high premiums)

Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 (bearish skew)

Max Pain: $8.00

High OI: $9.00 puts, $10.00 calls

Historical & Model Insights
Historical Move: SNAP averages 13.5% post-earnings, with a slight bearish bias (6/12 quarters down).

IV Crush: Expect 30–40% IV drop post-print, so time your exit carefully.

Model Consensus (Grok, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek): Moderately Bearish
Why? Overextended rally, high IV, Max Pain at $8.00, and “sell the news” risk.

Outlier: One model (Llama/Meta) sees bullish momentum from call activity, but it’s drowned out by bearish signals.

Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked put (bearish, defined risk)
Instrument: SNAP

Direction: Put

Strike: $8.50 (premium $0.52, fits $0.30–$0.60 target band)

Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)

Entry Price: $0.52

Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-04-29)

Profit Target: $0.78 (~50% gain)

Stop Loss: $0.26 (50% loss)

Confidence: 65%

Expected Move: ±$1.24 (~13.5%)

Key Risks:
Positive earnings surprise (strong ad revenue or user growth).

Severe IV crush killing put value.

Broad market/tech rally lifting SNAP.

Upbeat guidance sparking a squeeze.

29 apr

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

Target reached