S&P 500 - wobbly April

1 mag

Yesterday saw a big ‘risk-off’ move across all the major US stock indices. The biggest falls were seen in the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 and the domestically-focused mid-cap Russell 2000, which ended the day down 2.0% and 2.1% respectively. That was a fitting, if disappointing, end to April for US equities which have struggled to maintain the relentless bullishness which drove US indices higher throughout the first quarter. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 began to rally at the end of October following a drawn-out decline. By early in the New Year they were regularly posting record highs, and this behaviour continued through to the end of March. But April marked a significant turnaround in sentiment as the prospect of looser monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve began to fade. While the indices have recovered from their weakest levels last month, the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 ended April down 5%, 4%, 4% and 7% respectively. The selling has continued this morning amid a slew of earnings reports overnight, and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement later this evening. Considering corporate results, after last night’s close Amazon reported better-than-expected earnings and revenues, and that has lifted the stock by 2%. But tech darlings Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro Computer fell over 6% and 9% respectively on disappointing results. Today sees reports from CVS Health, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Pfizer and eBay, amongst others. But Wednesday’s big feature is the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. The market assigns effectively a zero probability of a change in rates. But the accompanying statement, together with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference, have the potential to move markets. Looking at today’s trade, it appears that investors are paring back risk on fears of a hawkish tone from Powell and the FOMC.