Incoming Volatility Event
reasons to believe a volatility event is coming:
- top of wedge/channel
- failed breakout day
- narrow dipbuying pressure for 21d, similar in length to previous narrow ranges
- climbing vix
reasons to think we can sustain the narrow range or higher:
- uptrend still intact
- conversion line and base line both pointing up and well oriented
- previous narrow ranges have lasted a bit longer
- vix is still low
you should sell your longs if:
- price drop below narrow range t/l
- conversion or base line fall out of wedge/channel
- vix go above kc base
- lagging line drop into wedge/channel
you should buy the dip if
- aggressive counter trend dip buy if vix go above kc upper
- price reach base line or bottom wedge
- price reach June 19 previous resistance which is now support
- top of wedge/channel
- failed breakout day
- narrow dipbuying pressure for 21d, similar in length to previous narrow ranges
- climbing vix
reasons to think we can sustain the narrow range or higher:
- uptrend still intact
- conversion line and base line both pointing up and well oriented
- previous narrow ranges have lasted a bit longer
- vix is still low
you should sell your longs if:
- price drop below narrow range t/l
- conversion or base line fall out of wedge/channel
- vix go above kc base
- lagging line drop into wedge/channel
you should buy the dip if
- aggressive counter trend dip buy if vix go above kc upper
- price reach base line or bottom wedge
- price reach June 19 previous resistance which is now support
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