Century-Old SPX Channel Signals Crucial Market Inflection

1. Long-term Channel:
The SPX has been following a clearly defined logarithmic trend channel, with highs and lows confined within this channel for nearly a century.
2. Current Price Action (2025):
o The index recently broke through the upper bound of the historical channel in 2024.
o It's retraced back through the channel in March 2025.
3. Historical Reference Points:
o Significant points noted are the 1929 market crash, the 1932 market low, and subsequent recoveries and corrections.
o The marked reference points (1929, 1932, 1942, 2000, 2009, 2020, 2022, and 2024) show pivotal moments where the price interacted meaningfully with this long-term channel.
Key Observations and Considerations:
• Logarithmic Scale:
o This emphasizes percentage changes rather than absolute values, clearly showing the growth pattern and highlighting significant deviations from average trend growth.
• Long-term Perspective:
o For investors, this signals caution in the near-term, suggesting potential further downside.
o From a longer-term perspective, significant pullbacks within this historical channel have historically provided strong opportunities for long-term investment.