DENIED...SPX 5,000 is becoming a challenge!

30 dic 2023

Above is the yearly chart for SPX from inception in 1957...the last 3 yearly candles (2021, 2022 & 2023) look nothing like its past history. The red dotted lines are closing HIGHS followed by weakness year/s. Typically year 3, after a weakness year, either breaks out OR we are still in bear mode. So we are in unchartered territory right now...neither the bulls nor the bears can claim any sort of victory!

This chart shows how getting to 5,000 SPX is becoming a HUGE task for the bulls. Why oh why could they not get an SPX yearly closing above 4,800 this year ? IMO this was imperative especially given the extremely low volume this past week.

Maybe the bulls remember all too well the troubles for NDX in 2000 at 4816.35 before its crash where it took 17 years to reach 5K.

Staying nimble is the key!

20 gen

Nota

With the closing today; SPX did produce a break out . A really bullish breakout will ensure weekly closings are above the red dotted line. Closing below the red dotted line would most likely indicate near term volatility to the downside; like the 2018 breakout failure produced.

20 gen

Nota

Another example of an unsuccessful & successful breakout

13 feb

Nota

As noted above...SPX did produce an ATH break out on Friday, Jan 19th.
SPX then proceeded to run up to 5K and close above it for two days. Today produced a pretty volatile move to the downside that could produce a breakout failure at the 5K level. In order for a bearish breakout failure to occur (vs. a usual pullback) you will see a continued breakdown and SPX CANNOT close above 5K on the daily. I've taken a short position at close with a stop at a closing above 5K should that happen.

2 mar

Nota

2 mar

Nota

SOOOOO many gaps left open...IMO this is not a healthy move up but I will not fight price action.