Potential Channel Breakdown in Stocks

The breakout in the S&P looks really meager. It broke through highs, but what was supposed to be a big burst of momentum in a bull wedge breakout was just a sputter. It looks like now we are seeing a bull channel. The lack of conviction here is a bit concerning. Bull channels tend to break to the downside and can easily retrace 50% of their height. If that is the case, that would put us somewhere in the neighborhood of 3617. The Kovach OBV is very flat, which supports this idea.