Indice S&P 500Short
Situation becomes subtle for SPX, multiple possible scenarios
0. Review
Called for 2035 ES retrace yesterday night, and it did print, but later than I expected.
My short order got filled @ 2042 and Exited @ 2035.
Tried to long at 2031.75, but stopped with a few points gain.
I expected it print midnight, then continue the rally. But it didn't. Yesterday's status quo gives a sign for a rest of rally, especially before Easter.
1. Volume Price Analysis
tradingview.com/chart/7hsrVxnK/
Today's volume is slightly below average and continued shrinking. It's the sign of topping.
tradingview.com/chart/JMcbQJ73/
We had heavy volume around 2042 to 2045 cash on the 5min chart, which is a retest of yesterday's weak volume area.
2. A 2-day forecast
We don't know it's a rest today before another rally or a temporary top is here. I will not place any unattended overnight order from today since it's more subtle now.
charts.mql5.com/10/633/spx500usd-d1-oanda-division11.png
Dermark sell setup invalidated on the daily chart. We may not have a clear sell signal here, it could be a rest before next rally, or moderate retrace start today.
I will be careful either long or short, but I'm less bullish now. Tomorrow we probably retest 2040 ES high and again have a sideway touches lower, and may as well close at a lower price than today.
That's today's call.
Happy trading to all and be cautious!
- Hank
Called for 2035 ES retrace yesterday night, and it did print, but later than I expected.
My short order got filled @ 2042 and Exited @ 2035.
Tried to long at 2031.75, but stopped with a few points gain.
I expected it print midnight, then continue the rally. But it didn't. Yesterday's status quo gives a sign for a rest of rally, especially before Easter.
1. Volume Price Analysis
tradingview.com/chart/7hsrVxnK/
Today's volume is slightly below average and continued shrinking. It's the sign of topping.
tradingview.com/chart/JMcbQJ73/
We had heavy volume around 2042 to 2045 cash on the 5min chart, which is a retest of yesterday's weak volume area.
2. A 2-day forecast
We don't know it's a rest today before another rally or a temporary top is here. I will not place any unattended overnight order from today since it's more subtle now.
charts.mql5.com/10/633/spx500usd-d1-oanda-division11.png
Dermark sell setup invalidated on the daily chart. We may not have a clear sell signal here, it could be a rest before next rally, or moderate retrace start today.
I will be careful either long or short, but I'm less bullish now. Tomorrow we probably retest 2040 ES high and again have a sideway touches lower, and may as well close at a lower price than today.
That's today's call.
Happy trading to all and be cautious!
- Hank
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