Clear Structure for Bounce Ahead. - SPY, SPX, ES

20 mar 2020

We have finally seen a pattern that fits EW rules here and have a clear 5 wave structure with all waves reaching their retracement levels per EW theory. Today we broke down below the last low at the end of the after hours session in ES, this suggests that we are now in W5 after completing W4 up this morning premarketing (ending at the 38.2 retracement of W3 perfectly). We should now see W5 extend into the 1.272, 1.618 or symmetric distance from W1 down from the high of W4. We should see a sizable bounce in one of the green boxes on this chart. The outcome illustrated above is taking us into the second green box near 2000, however W5 can absolutely end at the first green box and in this case the bounce would be 3 waves to near 3000.

Another interesting observation. Each substantial bounce as come with a tag of the red downtrend line. It would likely be even more powerful to suggest that the real bounce comes in with a tag of this trendline inside one of the green boxes.

The last note is today could have been a double bottom and we bounce first thing on Monday, however I see that as less likely given we broke the low and the state of things.

Cheers

22 mar 2020

Nota

I believe this move down to 2000 will likely be a 5 wave move given all the uncertainty... There will likely be a nice false bounce which will be W2 up to near the .618 of W1 down followed by an impulse rip lower small bounce and then a flush... Then we see it rip or gap up.

Then again perhaps we flush right down there and something is approved in the house that lines up technically with a level and its over... Anything can happen.

22 mar 2020

Nota

Related idea:

25 mar 2020

Nota

I believe W5 down is complete and we are headed higher in a shallow bounce... There is likely a buying opt here... If we get the ABC correction to near 2300 I would buy that for a push to 2700

26 mar 2020

Nota

Updated view above

2 apr 2020

Nota

Updated view -