US Credit spreads are widening against most majors and also against HYG suggesting tightening of monetary policy. If this trend continues alongside rate divergence then it may provide a catalyst for technical levels to the downside to be reached. The 61.8 fib of the last move up combined with a CDX HYG of 400 (prior structure) provides for an SP500 at 4600. Points of interest would include a retest of 5150 and/or a break of 5100 with 4hr confirmation candle to remain within the channel to the downside. I would not over stay my welcome however as long term corporate buy backs at these levels would quickly support the index regardless of PE value compression.
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