Market Overview: * SPY experienced a strong gap-up today, signaling bullish momentum driven by improved market sentiment and possibly favorable news/events. * Sector Performance: Leadership is evident in growth and technology sectors, while defensive plays are relatively lagging. * Volume: Notable increase in volume during the breakout, confirming institutional participation.
Technical Analysis: 1-Hour Chart: * Trend: SPY continues its upward trajectory, testing resistance near $593-$595. * Indicators: * MACD: Displays positive momentum, but the histogram shows early signs of weakening. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought at 96.72, indicating potential for short-term consolidation.
30-Minute Chart: * Price Action: * SPY is consolidating below $595 resistance after breaking above $584. * The bullish gap-up aligns with recent strength, but momentum could face resistance at higher levels. * Pattern: SPY appears to be forming a rising wedge, a potential bearish reversal pattern if confirmed.
Key Levels to Watch: Support Levels: * $590: Immediate support zone and HVL (Highest Volume Level). * $584: Strong support aligned with the 2nd PUT Wall. * $576: Key support, marking the lower trendline of the wedge.
Resistance Levels: * $593-$595: Immediate resistance, coinciding with the 2nd CALL Wall and highest positive NETGEX. * $596-$600: Major resistance zone, with $600 as a psychological level and 3rd CALL Wall.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights: Key Gamma Levels: * Positive Gamma Walls (Resistance): * $595: 71.53% GEX (2nd CALL Wall). * $596-$600: High resistance zone, with $596 holding 68.17% GEX (3rd CALL Wall). * Negative Gamma Levels (Support): * $590: Strong support, holding 15.01% GEX9. * $584: Critical support zone with PUT dominance (-0.39% GEX).
Trade Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Above $595 with confirmation of volume. * Target: $596-$600. * Stop-Loss: Below $590 to manage risk.
Bearish Scenario: * Entry: Rejection at $595 or breakdown below $590. * Target: $584-$576. * Stop-Loss: Above $596 to minimize losses.
Directional Bias: * Bullish Momentum: SPY is poised for further gains if $595 resistance is cleared, targeting $596-$600. * Caution for Pullback: Overbought conditions and rising wedge formation suggest potential consolidation or retracement toward $584-$590 support.
Weekly Outlook: * SPY's bullish momentum is likely to continue if market sentiment remains positive, with $600 as the major target by week's end. However, a failure to hold $590 may trigger a retest of lower support levels, presenting short-term opportunities for traders.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
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