SPY: Week of Jan 6th

5 gen

Hey everyone,

As promised, getting back into the grove of posting analyses.
I was going to cover other tickers but I ran a little long. People have told me that they have learned a lot from me so I wanted to take time to explain how to identify things clearly. I generally don't feel like I give helpful educational information in my ideas but I will make a point of doing it in the future.

If you are interested in Bulkowski stuff and his software, just google Thomas Bulkowski online and you will find lots of information! He provides a lot of free educational content online.

You can also find some educational ideas on tradingview that go over Bulkowski patterns, here are some I have found:

This one is a really good video on testing patterns using an indicator. This is using the same textbook I trained my own Bulkowski model with:

Anyway, this is my analysis/forecast. Hope you enjoy! Leave your questions below!

Safe trades!

7 gen

Trade attivo

Update:

It got a little overzealous approaching 600 but as the forecast foretold, 600 out of the question as of now.

Expectation is that we continue down. After all the chart was and remains incredibly bearish.

581 is the immediate target, but I haven't actually rerun forecasts, that was just the original forecast for the week. I try to prevent myself from perpetually rerunning redundant forecast and just like to stick with the initial. So, sticking with a continuation down to 581 for now. We'll see what happens.

8 gen

Nota

I caved and reran forecast.
Most point down; however disagreement into extent.

One has us finding support on the 585 which wouldn't shock me since that's been a solid support zone.
The other has us down to 581.

Looking at the implied move from options just to see where the MMs heads' are at, 581 is actually within the implied move and its a wider move down than up. So that's curious.

Pragmatically look for 585 as support if we continue down. If we fail it then we are looking towards 581.

Safe trades!

8 gen

Nota

Seems like it chose ol' reliable 585 to find support on.

The outlook post today is positive at least in the immediate future. Not sure about the longer term, but for Friday at least.

Remember tomorrow is a holiday!

Safe trades!

10 gen

Nota

Final update of the week,
Outlook for Friday:


That is the implied range from options. Pretty wide.
Outlook is bearish from a probability perspective, so we'll see what happens.
The rangingness is getting old real quick.
If we see a break below 585 then that is actually a break down from the range and would be the start of a decisive move.

If it is bullish, the cap from the MM's Implied Move is not permitting an upward break and would just keep us chopping within range.

We'll see what happens!

10 gen

Nota

And the bearish probability comes alive!
Support found on the implied min range but let's see where it goes from here.

10 gen

Nota

Amazing day!
The bearish probs held true and the Implied Move from Options also held true. Was able to catch it in both directions today.

Also, the close we just saw validates the head and shoulders pattern.

Will not have any more information until databases update post 8 pm today but will post an idea over the weekend.

Hope you all had a great week! And have a good weekend :-).