VVIX looks safe, but VVIX / VIX: "Prepare now"

Pane 1: VVIX appears to have broken support implying lower VIX volatility

Lower VIX volatility typically means lower VIX.
But not always.

• Consider VIX spiking to 35 and price going crazy. Usually the "volatility event" passes, price and VIX and VVIX all calm down.
  
• Imagine the same spike to 35, but this time, price goes nuts every day for a week, up 2%, down 2%, up 2%, down 2%, up 2%, and VIX stays at 35 all week long.
  
• Where does VVIX go as the crazy week plays out?
  
• - VVIX measures expected volatility of VIX.
  
• - VIX is at 35 every day. In contrast to the first spike, this is smooth sailing for VIX (regardless of 'price gone bonkers')
  

Therefor VVIX would be dropping.

Pane 2 and 3: SPY and VIX.

• Are VIX's (red) swings getting larger or smaller?
  
• Yet VIX is above 90% of its historic readings

.

Conclusions:

• Dropping VVIX always means a "smoother" VIX
  
• VIX can get smoother at 9
  
• VIX getting smoother at 25 is rare (but so is Monkey Pox)
  

Recommendations:

• Always consider VIX and VVIX together:
  
• On the same chart (Pane 1 and 2)
  
• Pane 4: as a product or as a center point (VIX*VVIX)^0.5
  
• Pane 5: as a ratio VVIX/VIX A "VIX adjusted VVIX"
  

*Thanks to Vaas for input and inspiration !
Trade safe, stay free.