Where price levitates and traps all shorts. Melt up inc?
Today we finished clearly above the channel after a surprise turn around at 4 A.M EST in the futures market.. Can you say PPT? Melt up?
I honestly think what we're seeing is a pretty decent big money short squeeze. If you were following my posts last week i noted that we were seeing big money cycle out of longs and possibly into shorts. Majority of the week last week it was working for them. Well, if they went home short last Friday, they woke up to a a boat load of pain on Monday with that 90 point SPX day. And if you shorted into close last night you woke up to pain again this morning. That does leave me to believe we're about to see a melt up as more and more funds and investors have to cover their shorts if we continue to trend higher. If that happens expect more people to jump on the train and accelerate the move. Buying begets buying.
As expected we did run into interference around the $297.50 level, and we did pop it there for a little bit but ended up giving it up after lunch break. I will be fully convinced this is a leg up after we get above, and close the 200 period MA. If we do close above the 200 period MA first stop is $304 gap fill, and then what i'm seeing as a breakdown candle high at $312-$313. If we get there, expect us to go for the gap fill at $324, and then the Feb top.. Crazy to think about right?
But on the other hand unless we get some decent participation this is a pretty shaky/precarious place on the chart still and that rug can get pulled at any given moment, as it did the last hour of trading yesterday. I'd also like to see RSI start participating a little more actively as well. If we continue to melt up in price without RSI coming with it we're going to see some pretty heavy divergences develop.
Note RSI starting to lose momentum on the hourly. CICO is back positive though.
I would like to note that /ES still hasn't broken back above its historical trend line from 08-09
SPX showing the bounce off of 2975 which happens to be the 100 period MA
IWM again having a killer day. Notice it still is below that trend line from the bottom. This is its second retest.
RUT about to challenge the last breakdown candle high
VIX confirming trend. Next stop 200 period MA around 24
Haven's not following along just yet though. Bonds, and metals are still showing measured fear in the market imo. Bonds like look they may be bear flagging though. Silver is still killing it, and Gold is seemingly just stuck.
Look for a break of $297.50, and then a shot at the $304 level. If we take that level and hold it we're in a confirmed uptrend and i wouldn't be surprised to see a run for the Feb highs over summer.
But as always keep your head on a swivel and stay safe.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
Today we finished clearly above the channel after a surprise turn around at 4 A.M EST in the futures market.. Can you say PPT? Melt up?
I honestly think what we're seeing is a pretty decent big money short squeeze. If you were following my posts last week i noted that we were seeing big money cycle out of longs and possibly into shorts. Majority of the week last week it was working for them. Well, if they went home short last Friday, they woke up to a a boat load of pain on Monday with that 90 point SPX day. And if you shorted into close last night you woke up to pain again this morning. That does leave me to believe we're about to see a melt up as more and more funds and investors have to cover their shorts if we continue to trend higher. If that happens expect more people to jump on the train and accelerate the move. Buying begets buying.
As expected we did run into interference around the $297.50 level, and we did pop it there for a little bit but ended up giving it up after lunch break. I will be fully convinced this is a leg up after we get above, and close the 200 period MA. If we do close above the 200 period MA first stop is $304 gap fill, and then what i'm seeing as a breakdown candle high at $312-$313. If we get there, expect us to go for the gap fill at $324, and then the Feb top.. Crazy to think about right?
But on the other hand unless we get some decent participation this is a pretty shaky/precarious place on the chart still and that rug can get pulled at any given moment, as it did the last hour of trading yesterday. I'd also like to see RSI start participating a little more actively as well. If we continue to melt up in price without RSI coming with it we're going to see some pretty heavy divergences develop.
Note RSI starting to lose momentum on the hourly. CICO is back positive though.
I would like to note that /ES still hasn't broken back above its historical trend line from 08-09
SPX showing the bounce off of 2975 which happens to be the 100 period MA
IWM again having a killer day. Notice it still is below that trend line from the bottom. This is its second retest.
RUT about to challenge the last breakdown candle high
VIX confirming trend. Next stop 200 period MA around 24
Haven's not following along just yet though. Bonds, and metals are still showing measured fear in the market imo. Bonds like look they may be bear flagging though. Silver is still killing it, and Gold is seemingly just stuck.
Look for a break of $297.50, and then a shot at the $304 level. If we take that level and hold it we're in a confirmed uptrend and i wouldn't be surprised to see a run for the Feb highs over summer.
But as always keep your head on a swivel and stay safe.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
