Week 33 | SPY
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Going to do my best on weekly plans here and make them public. My goal is to share what I see and have you all bring your mindshare together to see if we can make something work. Let's do it.
Macro Notes: 10Y is still in control and pulling a bearish weight on the market. That is the #1 thing to be watching right now. any dramatic move towards 4% and time to walk away for a bit. 4% is my bear/bull bias indicator.
Retail sales come in this week, I sometimes dabble in NKE and LULU, but feels to be a better play, as most, to trade after the news and after the trend is set. Short term trades, 3-10 days if I get bored, I'll tune in.
SPY: I think we bounce here off the 44 support/resistance line, retest at the minimum. Monday/Tuesday bullish but will have to see what 10Y does. If it retreats and continues, stay Bullish unless other macro steps into play.
Macro Notes: 10Y is still in control and pulling a bearish weight on the market. That is the #1 thing to be watching right now. any dramatic move towards 4% and time to walk away for a bit. 4% is my bear/bull bias indicator.
Retail sales come in this week, I sometimes dabble in NKE and LULU, but feels to be a better play, as most, to trade after the news and after the trend is set. Short term trades, 3-10 days if I get bored, I'll tune in.
SPY: I think we bounce here off the 44 support/resistance line, retest at the minimum. Monday/Tuesday bullish but will have to see what 10Y does. If it retreats and continues, stay Bullish unless other macro steps into play.
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I learned something early in trading that was key, I managed to quickly forgot. Always ALWAYS challenge ANY bias, especially yours. Now I am realizing that as soon as you HAVE a bias, cut it all and stay cash until you can find neutral. Nota
Chop on the yields could support a short term pump. Seeing more and more bull scenerio for the week.... Needing some bearish perspective. PLEASE someone go digging wirwNota
typo. digging with me (Typo)Nota
Implied options move for the week (looking at Friday)
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Pop and sell AH, nasty bull trap. I think we see chop until FOMC minutes, then down.
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Tomorrow I'm watching for a long scalp if we gap down. Euro CPI numbers in play along with Evangrande news coming out of China. Will be watching the Chap 15 filing news.
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RSI almost oversold on daily, white line above should act as a solid support (434ish)Nota
Also, almost bottom SD2 BB on the daily show above.Nota
The bounce came as expected... I had half my position stopped out because I set my stop too tight, but the other half was able to cover my less (almost) for the day. NVDA short position at the bell into the first 30 was decent play as well, albeit reactionary. Likely be trading NVDA and SPY next week on same time frame. In/out daily and not holding shit over night, not with China being on the front of a major collapse. Will start a new thread for Week 34. Have a good weekend!Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
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