$SPX SPY 60min chart 11/19/13

I have moved the trend line down but, as of 8:00 A.M., it does appear that SPY/SPX will open below the trend line. I will continue to move the trend line down, if needed, until either the 13EMA crosses down through the 34EMA or SPY drops below the swing low 176.09, whichever comes first. The corresponding SPX low would be 1760.64. Per my method, SPY/SPX are moving with a bullish bias until the 13EMA crosses down through the 34EMA.

Currently on the ES 4 hour chart, the ES is about 3pts above its 34EMA and about the same distance above its trend line which I'm anchoring off the November 8th candle body low, not the wick, of 1744.75. We might get a test of the 34EMA at 1782.50, which is not an uncommon occurrence in a rising trend. However, at test and failure of the 1782.50 area would not bode well going forward. But we're not there yet.

Market participants and dip buyers expect SPX to rally back all of the nearly 7pts it lost yesterday, as it has done countless times in the past. Failure to do so, especially by Wednesday's close, could mean that the overdue pull back is at hand.

GL