Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024
Nota
Good startNota
Early stageNota
More pulling back aheadNota
Should start turning upNota
Very good price action following the expected pathNota
I made a mistake with the instrument here, instead of TLT should have used IEF as 10 yr yields will fall faster than 30 yr yieldsNota
It is highly likely that this upswing starting Oct 2023 extends into Oct 2025. Obviously no straight line but some correction starting Aug into Oct 2024Nota
Entertaining to say the leastNota
Market participants are fully imposing the Trump trade across asset markets. This most likely will form a triangle (currently D wave forming to the downside) before new highs in yields/lows in bondsNota
Bonds setting initial low on that decline likely this weekNota
JP was a bit hesitant yesterday which is incrementally hawkish (as was Logan). I was very confident that this will happen once DJT wins. More cuts will further destabilize yieldsNota
Probably quick rally this weekNota
Market was already sniffing the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec as an outspoken deficit hawkNota
Should be heading higher into summer June/July. Bessent has massive debt to rollover
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