10 Yr T-note $TNX Break-out

15 mag 2022

TNX has broken out of its long-standing 35 year descending channel, first time breaking out above 50 EMA and pushinf towards 100 EMA since 1994.

The descending channel includes both the dot.com and housing bubbles without breaking above the 50 EMA.

Given add'l rate hikes on the table and bloated CB balance sheets, extreme supply of money in the markets, overnight reverse repo in the trillions... there's an incredibly long way to go walking back unfettered money printing, unless the Fed gives up and lets inflation run unabated.

Either way, TNX isn't done climbing.

Expecting a bear market rally to bring it back for a 50 EMA retest is reasonable and normal; however, the broader macroenvironment is unhealthy and there's more room for these yields to run this year.