MARKETS week ahead: October 7 – 13
Last week in the news
The US non-farm payrolls for September surprised the markets during the previous week, causing investors to consider a soft landing of the US economy and a 25bps Feds cut till the end of this year. The start of the week brought a negative sentiment on the US equities markets, however the S&P 500 ended the week with a small gain, at the level of 5.751, after the release of jobs data. The US Dollar gained on the same grounds, however, the price of gold remained reluctant to follow the negative correlation, considering strong bullish sentiment which is still holding amid the ongoing Middle East tensions. In anticipation of the Feds 25 bps rate cut in the coming period, the US 10Y Treasury yields were testing the 4,0% level, ending the week modestly below this level. The crypto market was on a losing side this week, reacting to a combination of macro factors both in the US and China. BTC was testing the 60K support line, but is ending the week around the 62K levels.
The US nonfarm payrolls reached the level of 254K in September, which was almost doubled from the market forecast. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1% in September from 4,2% posted in August. The implications of such strong jobs data were evident on markets as investors adjusted their positions and sentiment toward the higher potential for a soft landing of the US economy. At the same time, some analysts were noting a high potential for another 50 bps rate cut by the Fed in the coming FOMC meeting, however, now this assumption is revised to 25bps. Analysts are also revising the number of rate cuts during 2025, as a strong economy will make the Fed slow down with rate cuts.
Another important event that was covered by news during the previous week was a rise of China's equity market by 25% within a single week. As China's Government announced heavy economic stimulus in order to support further growth of their economy, the investors' interest toward China's stocks surged accordingly, boosting it by 25% for the week. Analysts are noting that the demand for the exposure in China's market is still quite strong, which might continue to boost the equity market. Still, they are noting high risks of such a development, especially in case that the outcome of monetary measures might not be in line with current market pricing.
The price of oil was another topic which was discussed in the news. As tensions in the Middle East continue, the investors were concerned that this might have a significant impact on the price of oil. News were concretely discussing the Iranian oil production which might be disrupted due to tensions. In this sense, analysts are estimating that the price of Brent crude oil might hit between $100 and $150 / barrel.
In line with a drop in value of the crypto market, the US based exchange traded funds experienced the worst week since September 6th this year, with a total estimated outflow of $300 million. Bitwise announced that it plans to add Treasuries to its portfolio of BTC in order to curb high volatility, and “improve risk-adjusted returns”.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was under indirect influence of both US and China's macro developments. The strong US jobs data for September returned investors positive confidence toward the US stock market, moving a part of funds from the crypto market back to the equity markets. On the other side, announced strong stimulus measures from China's Government supported market interests for Chinese equities, where China's equities rose by 25% within the single week. This again had a negative impact on the crypto market, since a portion of funds was transferred to this market. Investors continue to seek high returns, which the crypto market is not able to deliver at this moment. On a positive side is that such developments are cyclical on financial markets, and the crypto market follows the same path. Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the week by 7%, whipping out around 157B from this market. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat on a weekly level, moving around 126B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at 463B which represents a 28% surge from the beginning of this year.
There has been a general sell off of crypto coins during the previous week. There are only a few which managed to end the week in green, while the vast majority of coins were traded on a downside. In nominal terms, BTC and ETH led the general drop in market capitalization. BTC lost around 6% on a weekly basis, decreasing its market cap by 77B. ETH lost less in nominal terms, but a decrease in the cap of 34B led to a decrease in value of 10.5% within a week. XRP was traded down by 15%, losing 5.3B of its value. BNB was also among higher weekly losers with a drop of 5.8B or 6.6%. Solana was down by 9.5%, losing $ 7B in value. Among higher losers in relative terms were Maker, with a drop of more than 15%, Polygon was down by 16.4%, and DOGE lost almost 17% in value. The majority of other coins closed the week in red between 9% and 13%.
There has been increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. Polygon pulled out a total 6.2% of its coins from the market. Maker withdrew 0.4% of its coins, while Solanas number of coins dropped by 0.1% on a weekly basis. On the opposite side were Miota, which increased the number of circulating coins by 0.6%, Filecoin coins were higher by 0.3%, while Polkadot and Algorand increased the number of coins by 0.2% w/w, same as Tether.
Crypto futures market
Same as on the spot market, the negative sentiment held also on a crypto futures market during the previous week. BTC futures were last traded down by more than 5% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at level of $63.680, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $69.705. On a positive side is that March 2026 still holds above the 71K, ending the week at level of $71.180.
Similar situation was with ETH futures, which were traded lower by more than 10% compared to the week before. The exception was December 2024, which was traded down by 12.85%, ending the week at $ 2.408. December 2025 was last traded at price $2.668, while March 2026 dropped below the 3K, closing the week at $2.717.
The US non-farm payrolls for September surprised the markets during the previous week, causing investors to consider a soft landing of the US economy and a 25bps Feds cut till the end of this year. The start of the week brought a negative sentiment on the US equities markets, however the S&P 500 ended the week with a small gain, at the level of 5.751, after the release of jobs data. The US Dollar gained on the same grounds, however, the price of gold remained reluctant to follow the negative correlation, considering strong bullish sentiment which is still holding amid the ongoing Middle East tensions. In anticipation of the Feds 25 bps rate cut in the coming period, the US 10Y Treasury yields were testing the 4,0% level, ending the week modestly below this level. The crypto market was on a losing side this week, reacting to a combination of macro factors both in the US and China. BTC was testing the 60K support line, but is ending the week around the 62K levels.
The US nonfarm payrolls reached the level of 254K in September, which was almost doubled from the market forecast. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1% in September from 4,2% posted in August. The implications of such strong jobs data were evident on markets as investors adjusted their positions and sentiment toward the higher potential for a soft landing of the US economy. At the same time, some analysts were noting a high potential for another 50 bps rate cut by the Fed in the coming FOMC meeting, however, now this assumption is revised to 25bps. Analysts are also revising the number of rate cuts during 2025, as a strong economy will make the Fed slow down with rate cuts.
Another important event that was covered by news during the previous week was a rise of China's equity market by 25% within a single week. As China's Government announced heavy economic stimulus in order to support further growth of their economy, the investors' interest toward China's stocks surged accordingly, boosting it by 25% for the week. Analysts are noting that the demand for the exposure in China's market is still quite strong, which might continue to boost the equity market. Still, they are noting high risks of such a development, especially in case that the outcome of monetary measures might not be in line with current market pricing.
The price of oil was another topic which was discussed in the news. As tensions in the Middle East continue, the investors were concerned that this might have a significant impact on the price of oil. News were concretely discussing the Iranian oil production which might be disrupted due to tensions. In this sense, analysts are estimating that the price of Brent crude oil might hit between $100 and $150 / barrel.
In line with a drop in value of the crypto market, the US based exchange traded funds experienced the worst week since September 6th this year, with a total estimated outflow of $300 million. Bitwise announced that it plans to add Treasuries to its portfolio of BTC in order to curb high volatility, and “improve risk-adjusted returns”.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was under indirect influence of both US and China's macro developments. The strong US jobs data for September returned investors positive confidence toward the US stock market, moving a part of funds from the crypto market back to the equity markets. On the other side, announced strong stimulus measures from China's Government supported market interests for Chinese equities, where China's equities rose by 25% within the single week. This again had a negative impact on the crypto market, since a portion of funds was transferred to this market. Investors continue to seek high returns, which the crypto market is not able to deliver at this moment. On a positive side is that such developments are cyclical on financial markets, and the crypto market follows the same path. Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the week by 7%, whipping out around 157B from this market. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat on a weekly level, moving around 126B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at 463B which represents a 28% surge from the beginning of this year.
There has been a general sell off of crypto coins during the previous week. There are only a few which managed to end the week in green, while the vast majority of coins were traded on a downside. In nominal terms, BTC and ETH led the general drop in market capitalization. BTC lost around 6% on a weekly basis, decreasing its market cap by 77B. ETH lost less in nominal terms, but a decrease in the cap of 34B led to a decrease in value of 10.5% within a week. XRP was traded down by 15%, losing 5.3B of its value. BNB was also among higher weekly losers with a drop of 5.8B or 6.6%. Solana was down by 9.5%, losing $ 7B in value. Among higher losers in relative terms were Maker, with a drop of more than 15%, Polygon was down by 16.4%, and DOGE lost almost 17% in value. The majority of other coins closed the week in red between 9% and 13%.
There has been increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. Polygon pulled out a total 6.2% of its coins from the market. Maker withdrew 0.4% of its coins, while Solanas number of coins dropped by 0.1% on a weekly basis. On the opposite side were Miota, which increased the number of circulating coins by 0.6%, Filecoin coins were higher by 0.3%, while Polkadot and Algorand increased the number of coins by 0.2% w/w, same as Tether.
Crypto futures market
Same as on the spot market, the negative sentiment held also on a crypto futures market during the previous week. BTC futures were last traded down by more than 5% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at level of $63.680, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $69.705. On a positive side is that March 2026 still holds above the 71K, ending the week at level of $71.180.
Similar situation was with ETH futures, which were traded lower by more than 10% compared to the week before. The exception was December 2024, which was traded down by 12.85%, ending the week at $ 2.408. December 2025 was last traded at price $2.668, while March 2026 dropped below the 3K, closing the week at $2.717.
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