Could TSLA rebound after a weaker decrease than expected deliver

Tesla Q2 2025 Delivery fell, but could it rebound in 2H?
Key Figures

• Q2 2025 Deliveries: 384,122 vehicles
  
• Year-over-Year Change: Down approximately 13–14% from Q2 2024
  
• Wall Street Expectations: Around 385,000–387,000 vehicles
  
• Production vs. Deliveries: 410,244 vehicles produced, indicating a build-up in inventory
  

Fundamental analyst

• Sales Decline: This marks the second consecutive quarter of declining deliveries for Tesla, reflecting intensifying competition, especially from Chinese EV makers like BYD and legacy automakers such as General Motors, who have gained significant market share.
  
• Aging Product Line: Tesla’s current lineup is considered to be aging, with no major new models launched recently, while competitors continue to introduce fresh, competitively priced vehicles.
  
• Brand and Leadership Impact: Tesla’s brand image and CEO Elon Musk’s public controversies and political activity have contributed to softer demand in some markets.
  
• Inventory Build-Up: Production exceeded deliveries by about 26,000 vehicles, suggesting demand-side challenges rather than supply constraints.
  
• Stock Market Reaction: Despite the delivery decline, Tesla’s stock price rose by about 4–5% after the report, as actual results were better than the most pessimistic forecasts (340,000–360,000 deliveries). The markets are expecting the decreasing trend to be slower.
  

Techincal Analyst

• TSLA has rebounded strongly from its 2023 lows, forming a clear upward channel since late 2024. The stock is currently trading near the lower end of this ascending channel, indicating a key support area.
  
• If TSLA sustains above the $300–$310 zone, the uptrend could resume, targeting $350 and potentially $400.
  
• A breakdown below $300 could trigger further declines toward $275 or lower, especially if accompanied by high volume.
  
• TSLA is at a technically important level. Holding above $300–$310 keeps the bullish channel alive, while a break below could signal a deeper correction. For the next directional move, watch for volume spikes and price action near these key levels.
  

By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Analyst from Exness