Tesla Lags as the 'Old Economy' Makes a Comeback
Tesla is probably the most prominent stock in the last 12-18 months, surging about 2,000 percent from its peak to trough. But now it may be at risk as sentiment pivots from "new economy" stocks to "old economy" stocks.
This chart compares TSLA’s relative strength to the SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF. (TSLA is now the #2 holding in the sector behind Amazon.com.) It shows how the electric-car maker is starting to lag the fund after a long period of outperformance. AMZN has been lagging even longer.
In their places, the sector’s top performers in the last week are now the beaten-down reopening stocks like Carnival (+29%),
Royal Caribbean (+29%) and 
Norwegian Cruise Line (+24%). This illustrates the kind of rotation underway as capital returns to more traditional companies.
Two other chart features stand out with TSLA. First, it’s breaking the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). It’s managed to hold this line several times in the last year. But will that remain true at a time when bond yields are spiking higher?
Second, notice how TSLA made a new all-time high over $900 on January 25. Also notice how MACD was already falling – a classic case of bearish divergence. That's another potential sign that the blistering rally has cooled.
Finally, it’s worth remembering TSLA’s history. It rallied 670 percent between March 2013 and September 2014, and then languished for the next five years. TSLA’s current run is a similar (slightly shorter) length. Is it time for another pause?
The same might be applied to
solar energy, which is also under pressure on the heels of a 400 percent run since March 2020.
TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
This chart compares TSLA’s relative strength to the SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF. (TSLA is now the #2 holding in the sector behind Amazon.com.) It shows how the electric-car maker is starting to lag the fund after a long period of outperformance. AMZN has been lagging even longer.
In their places, the sector’s top performers in the last week are now the beaten-down reopening stocks like Carnival (+29%),
Royal Caribbean (+29%) and Norwegian Cruise Line (+24%). This illustrates the kind of rotation underway as capital returns to more traditional companies.Two other chart features stand out with TSLA. First, it’s breaking the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). It’s managed to hold this line several times in the last year. But will that remain true at a time when bond yields are spiking higher?
Second, notice how TSLA made a new all-time high over $900 on January 25. Also notice how MACD was already falling – a classic case of bearish divergence. That's another potential sign that the blistering rally has cooled.
Finally, it’s worth remembering TSLA’s history. It rallied 670 percent between March 2013 and September 2014, and then languished for the next five years. TSLA’s current run is a similar (slightly shorter) length. Is it time for another pause?
The same might be applied to
solar energy, which is also under pressure on the heels of a 400 percent run since March 2020.TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
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