$TSLA Contrarian Bounce Against the Market Grain.

6 feb

TSLA:1D

Price breaks out of downtrend at +3SD (190.79).

Potential ‘gap-fill’ up to 206.

Bullish price to RSI divergence. (yellow lines)

Pearson’s R^2 is extremely high and I don’t believe this level of trend strength can be maintained at these levels of elevation for a very extended period of time.

Significant inverse correlation to relevant index ETF (QQQ) makes TSLA a theoretically contrarian trade for me assuming I have a bearish sentiment on broader tech sector as represented by QQQ. Given how beaten up the stock has been I believe it could rise against a falling tech sector, at some point over the next 90 days.

First target is 198 level, second target is filling the gap up to 206 and the third and final ‘reach target’ would be the 0.5 retrace at 222.60. I would be happy with 2/3 of these being completed.

If the trade went against me, I see the worst case, downside, scenario as a further spill to the 1.382 (147.56) with a drop to the mid 160’s as more likely in the event of a downturn. My thesis is long but outlining the downside scenario is an important part of managing risk for me.

Happy trading.

16 feb

Trade attivo

Target 1 at 198 level reached. Musk has acquired 20% stake. If he is able to acquire the full 25% we could see all targets get taken up to the 0.5 retrace at 222 region.

17 feb

Trade attivo

TSLA:1D

I see strong volume providing a near term floor as evidenced by the V-POC at 186.13.

Bullish price to RSI divergence is showing confirmation.

Inverse head and shoulders pattern is taking shape nicely.

Price is doing the work to 'fill the gap' at 206.44 which my first target.

Intraday oscillators (1H and 4H) are overbought and I will be looking for a minor pullback to the 192.83 level to reenter long.

My price targets to hit before the end of April:

206.44 (upper gap fill, highly probable)
211.38 (minor 1.382 retrace, probable)
220.07 (major 0.5 retrace, moderately probable).

24 mag

Trade chiuso manualmente