BRENT OIL Long : Buy the Dip Pull Back
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Summary: Long, after a 20% pull back , inventories continue to decline in Europe and demand is increasing in India and China.
Holding the 50 EMA on the weekly plus a Golden Cross.
Price sell off trigger by concerns over new Omicron Sth Africa variant and new lockdowns in Europe , prompted a global sell off on risk assets. Also, DXY/USD has been strengthening taking pressure of commodities across the board.
Finally , signalling by the US on the release of 50m barrels of the SPR plus allies releasing stock to increase supply - most likely a minor price effect if any.
Holding the 50 EMA on the weekly plus a Golden Cross.
Price sell off trigger by concerns over new Omicron Sth Africa variant and new lockdowns in Europe , prompted a global sell off on risk assets. Also, DXY/USD has been strengthening taking pressure of commodities across the board.
Finally , signalling by the US on the release of 50m barrels of the SPR plus allies releasing stock to increase supply - most likely a minor price effect if any.
Commento
A higher low has been formed, price has stabilised above $70Fears of Omicron is subsiding a little, as reports from Sth Africa indicate cases are mild.
Commento
Goldman Sachs agrees that price will continue to riseyoutu.be/Qs75DuhpoQI
Commento
The low is inCommento
Fears over the Omicron coronavirus variant's impact on international aviation and other sources of oil demand have prompted massive liquidation of previously bullish hedge fund positions.Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 131 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Nov. 30.
The one-week sale was the 13th largest in 455 weeks since the start of 2013 and was a result of Omicron fears converging with low levels of liquidity after the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
Total sales since the start of October have reached 293 million barrels, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In the most recent week there was heavy selling across Brent (-45 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-43 million), European gas oil (-22 million), U.S. gasoline (-13 million) and U.S. heating oil (-8 million).
Closing Note
Omicron arrived in a market that was already trending down in the short term and served to turn gentle selling pressure into a flood at a time when low liquidity helped to create the conditions for prices to plunge.
The new coronavirus variant has shaken the speculative froth out of the market and left benchmark prices close to long-term averages in real terms and positions neutral.
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