US30 PROBABILITH ANALYSIS

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1️⃣ Bullish Entry Plan (Long Position)**
This is the **high-probability** scenario where price continues upward.

Entry Criteria (Long)**
- **Ideal Entry:** If price pulls back into the **discount zone** or holds above the **equilibrium level**.
- **Confirmations Needed:**
- A **bullish BOS (Break of Structure) on lower timeframes** (5M or 15M).
- Bullish rejection (e.g., **pin bar, engulfing candle, or liquidity sweep**).
- **Price must stay above the discount zone** and not break below BOS.

Entry Trigger**
- Look for price action near **43,365 – 43,425 (equilibrium area)**
- If price shows bullish reaction in this area, enter long.

Stop Loss (SL)**
- Below the **weak low** or **PDL (Previous Day’s Low)**
- **Target:**
- **First TP:** PDH (Previous Day’s High) around **43,800**.
- **Final TP:** The strong high near **43,850 – 43,900**.

📈 **Risk-to-Reward (R:R)** → Aim for **1:3 or higher**.



2️⃣ Bearish Entry Plan (Short Position)**
This setup assumes price **rejects from the premium zone** and sells off.

Entry Criteria (Short)**
- **Ideal Entry:** At the **premium zone** near **43,750 – 43,850**.
- **Confirmations Needed:**
- A **liquidity grab** above PDH (**price fakes out then drops**).
- **Bearish engulfing candle** or strong rejection.
- A **Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside on lower timeframes

Entry Trigger**
- If price **sweeps PDH (Previous Day’s High) but fails to hold above**, enter short.

Stop Loss (SL)**
- Above the **strong high (~43,900)**.

Target (TP)**
- **First TP:** Equilibrium (~43,450).
- **Final TP:** PDL (~43,245).

📉 **Risk-to-Reward (R:R)** → **1:4 or higher**.


3️⃣ Neutral Strategy (Wait for Confirmation)**
- If price consolidates **between equilibrium & PDH**, avoid taking trades.
- Only enter if **clear BOS or liquidity grab** happens.


Trading Plan Summary**
| Setup | Entry Zone | SL | TP1 | TP2 | R:R |
|--------|----------|----|-----|-----|----|
| ✅ Long | 43,365 – 43,425 | Below PDL | 43,800 | 43,900 | 1:3+ |
| 🚨 Short | 43,750 – 43,850 | Above 43,900 | 43,450 | 43,245 | 1:4+ |


Final Thoughts**
- **For Longs:** Wait for a bullish rejection in the discount zone.
- **For Shorts:** Look for a liquidity grab at the premium zone.
- Use a **1:3 or 1:4 R:R** for better profitability.
- Stick to **risk management** (max **1% per trade**).