USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

Past week saw a narrow range of 81.57-82.14. The Monthly candle shows a bearish candle. A close below 81.60 favors further lower levels. After almost 2 months the currency broke the support at 82.05. There is not much change in the earlier observations of the likely scenario which would be a consolidation between 81.60 and 82.15. Break below 81.60 could lead to a sharp move towards the target of 81.10 and finally 80.60. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:
• The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83
• Moves in Dollar Index-DXY does not have exact correlation
• The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
• As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
o The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
o This range is continuing to be protected
o This week is crucial for the pair to break or bounce
o The target for this move is 80.60 provided 81.60 is taken out on a closing basis


Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.