USDJPY H4 Long short term idea

23 lug 2018

On the daily time-frame we can clearly see the bullish leg has formed its high and reversed with an evening star formation just shy of the major resistance region. This was followed by heavy bearish pressure on Friday breaking the exponential moving average and weekly support. Continued bearish pressure into today’s session has seen price break through the simple moving average as well, in line with the uptrend break. I expect to see some form of hesitation around this 111.00 region possibly with a retest of the 111.50 region within the next couple of sessions before heading towards the 109.50 level of support. As you can see from the chart a Fibonacci tool aligns this level nicely with the refined retracement level. Price gapped slightly lower with the market open last night and after retesting the 111.50 support turned resistance, melted to meet daily support in line with the long-term exponential moving average. The last H4 candle closed as a doji at this region showing indecision. We await this H4 closure to see another downside rejection and a break back above the 200ema to suggest a new high at a test of 111.50 resistance.