Short USDTRY Carry Trade - Monthly Stochastic Bearish Divergence

2 nov 2018

Chart shows a monthly stochastic bearish divergence.

I am short USDTRY from 6.67895 with stop loss set at 7.24 currently getting 17.5% APY on this carry trade through my broker. Planning to hold this trade as long as the carry is net positive and the Lira stays above it's all time low relative the the USD.

Fundamentals are getting better as the trade deficit is improving, having declined from over $9.2 Billion USD in December 2017 to less than $1.9 Billion in September 2018.

Interest rates also increased from 8% in May 2018 to 24% in September 2018.

The US and Turkey have both just lifted sanctions on each other's government officials. In addition, according to Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez, Turkey has been told it will receive a waiver on U.S. sanctions against Iranian oil sales.

Debt to GDP for Turkey is relatively low at 28.3% having declined significantly from 43.9% in 2009.

19 dic 2019

Trade chiuso manualmente

Today the carry on this trade finally went negative with my broker so I closed the position out manually @ 5.94538 for an unleveraged capital gain of over 10.98%. In addition this position has generated over 19.73% in interest. Total profit including capital gain and interest was over 30.71% from September 4th, 2018 through December 19th, 2019.