USOIL: 9 week downtrend signal, watch for support below

9 mar 2017

Oil has started a weekly downtrend, which we accurately predicted, monitoring the positioning, sentiment and the spreads in oil against other instruments (energy sector, Canadian dollar, etc). I think we can hold our position for some time, we're short from 53.25.

Since we already hit the first 'clone' of the weekly mode range, we could stall here. I'm monitoring it, since we have a few fundamental key levels below price. If these levels don't hold as support, the market will test the next levels below, over and over until it is bid, after finding a floor at levels where OPEC might feel compelled to intervene again.
I'm watching both the technicals, and the CoT report data, to determine where to exit the shorts.
Good luck if already in, if not, better stand aside and wait to either go long at support, or simply do nothing until oil bottoms again.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

9 mar 2017

Nota

The hourly is worrying, specially since we have hit the weekly range target #1:

I might take the short off and reenter higher, but waiting a bit more to decide.

The signal has time left, but the top of the OPEC cut day might end up being support. Let's see how today closes.

9 mar 2017

Nota

I covered the short, I'll watch it. I entered longs in gold, and holding my EEM long term long.

13 mar 2017

Nota

Looks like we could be bottoming here in the short term. I'll wait and see, wouldn't want to go long until spec longs are out. COT shows little change.

26 mar 2017

Nota

Longs are being closed, but not yet safe to go long in my opinion.
I'm watching from the sidelines, the downtrend has time left, and we need longs to get squeezed out.

13 apr 2017

Nota

Time expires soon for the downtrend, looks strong. See updated post.
USOIL could be about to break out and rip...maybe Saudis want to extend the cuts to boost their Aramco IPO.

20 apr 2017

Nota

21 apr 2017

Nota

Covered short for now. +0.25%