The monthly Oil cycle since April fool's day 2020. Am I a fool?

5 giorni fa

https://www.tradingview.com/x/apPieQ2N/

I will keep this brief as it might be a Fibonacci witch-hunt. The oil bull-run commenced in April of 2020 & that commencement is flagged with a green vertical broken line. Note the Fibonacci zero-level as well from 04/2020 and a trend line extended to oil's high price made in March 2022.

You will see ChartPrime's 'smart money indicator' print a green bullish up arrow (thick) in Oct. 21.

Th monthly chart clearly shows the very bottom AlgoAlpha volume indicator where volume was at a peak coinciding with the higher monthly price around the 1st & 2nd quarters of 2022 and as this indicator turns red on lesser volume we see that monthly candles turn bearish red as you would expect and down price goes to July 2023 which for reference I also denoted with a vertical broken white line.

Did I say something about making this short? I will try & wrap this up.


I continue to be bullish for oil purely from its higher TF charts. Here is why in brief form.:

1. Fib levels are more precise in higher TF's, correct me if I'm wrong? Price is still in the golden zone near 50%.

2. Oil on this chart was in a consolidation period since Sep. 2024 but look what price is doing in the monthly candle we are currently in. I.e.. It is breaking higher. (I picked an oil long trade a few weeks back, around Xmas, check my TV publication if you would prefer)

3. The volume indicator is at the lows of historical volume but Algo' in their instructions state a geen circle print is quite likely a bullish turning cycle in volume. Plus weekly & daily volume is very high.

Look, there's much more indicating another strong run and if and whennprice breaks higher of the Sep '23 candle it will be a huge breakout to test those early 2022 highs. This could coincide with a world recession and a breakout in the oil price.

4 giorni fa

Nota

I hope there is no world recession. The main thing to mention which I omitted above are the Double Bottoms on the weekly and monthly timeframe, very supportive of higher prices.

4 giorni fa

Trade attivo

Stop loss could be quite tight under 15m chart support zone swing low. 78.68 for stop.

Set buy limit order around current whole number price 0.79 but know that price could drift back into the support zone but price I checked has pulled back to the final Fibonacci number so I think oil starts to move up again this week. At the start of Australia session be aware of outrageous buy-sell prices (slippage) but by 11am Sydney time price should be getting back to normal.

Lets look at the monthly and see the pyramid or triangles but see the current monthly candle, for my mind that is looking volatile and a breakout in the oil price in the next day or 2. Monthly chart has a double bottom and a neckline to break up near 90.



Call me crazy, but I'm seeing big name stocks like Tesla and Nvidia breaking out mid next week, I am starting to see the gold price possibly breaking out as it shadows BTCUSD breaking out next week after a bit of a pullback and I'm seeing all that on the cards and I have not even checked the USDX yet. Even if it is very strong next week it will only serve to increase volatility which is good.

President Trump is active this coming week in important meetings with Crypto's like TRON which is said to be the most profitable of the lot and beats bitcoin. Catchya. Take easy and don't bet with money you can't afford to lose.

3 giorni fa

Nota

Good morning from Australia. I like to 'put my money where my mouth is', a saying we have down-under, I'm sure it's 'universal' to the English language.

I bought another position at around 79.20 not long ago. So I have a total of 3 positions with stop-losses that I think are worth the risk.
(When I remember how risky trading can be in those bad news events for so many price tanking and destructive possibilities to portfolios), I would never go without a Stop on the oil price & I've learnt over the years to give a clear Take-profit so that my target has some conviction.

That's all for now. As I said yesterday I thought price had completed its pullback after a couple of bullish days must be over a week ago now.

Keep a eye on the current monthly candle on 1M timeframe, or check my diagram above as it slowly explodes upwards through the top of a pyramid.

3 giorni fa

Nota

Below price is the MACD I use (under price in the chart) and the standard settings are what makes this the most accurate one I have come across whether weekly or low timeframe charts.

I also use the impulse Macd by lazy bear to buy and sell over-extended (overbought & oversold) currency's, stocks and the gold price. I will always get the bounce or pullback into some profit and sometimes its a high time frame top or bottom complete reversal in price for big moves, but more times than not it's a pullback from the predominant trend.

If you'd like to follow me here on TV I will be covering and making educational video setups for my followers only starting this year and soon.

3 giorni fa

Nota

3 giorni fa

Nota

Another option is to buy on the 30m chart and buy as price pushes up and through the green trend line.

Then buy from say a 5m chart and a similar bullish confluence will be staring back at you.

Trend lines can be your last confirmation in placing a trade in just about every scenario and strategy. Wait for price to retest and Bob's your uncle.

3 giorni fa

Nota

Oil price dragged back a little bit by Bitcoin's pullback to consolidate at around 100 k. My money is long on Crypto and Bitcoin will breakout from here soon. Gold price dipped as well.