8/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
VIPS
sub $12.. things that go "hrm"
- tough to own any chinese stonks, i get it.
BABA is arguably the cheapest biggest non-US moat on the planet and has a nice AI story too that is worth peanuts
- i've owned russian assets when the USSA rendered them zeros. i get the risk we face here with election upon us
- also understand these results (notably the guide) wasn't great. but the stock is/ was partially and also incorporating this
- i also don't proclaim to know the catalyst here. this is always risky if you don't size/ risk manage.
- but from a LT perspective, idk how you can look at something that does 2 bn in free cash flow and worth 4-5 bn (and by the way growing in one of the largest e-comm mkts with a nearly 20% market share and doing well in the off-brand category) and say "nah".
- there's always downside. cheap things can get cheaper especially in today's mkt of finding life boats in a world of fastest growing assets (growth is the only scarcity, esp profitable growth *ahem* nvda as king and will remain as such).
- but 3x (cash adjusted) PE, 40-50% fcf yield. i'd say you're not taking a massive risk here as a small LT set and forget punt. looked at options but given the election, the fact i can only go until Jan 2025 and premiums are high on a day like today, i'd probably only consider them if we get a further risk off move closer to the $10 zone and especially below.
- i'm in for 50 bps starter here. idea is a longer-term position and possibly grow it. like the entry is the tl;dr
- take a look. what am i missing?
V
VIPSsub $12.. things that go "hrm"
- tough to own any chinese stonks, i get it.
BABA is arguably the cheapest biggest non-US moat on the planet and has a nice AI story too that is worth peanuts- i've owned russian assets when the USSA rendered them zeros. i get the risk we face here with election upon us
- also understand these results (notably the guide) wasn't great. but the stock is/ was partially and also incorporating this
- i also don't proclaim to know the catalyst here. this is always risky if you don't size/ risk manage.
- but from a LT perspective, idk how you can look at something that does 2 bn in free cash flow and worth 4-5 bn (and by the way growing in one of the largest e-comm mkts with a nearly 20% market share and doing well in the off-brand category) and say "nah".
- there's always downside. cheap things can get cheaper especially in today's mkt of finding life boats in a world of fastest growing assets (growth is the only scarcity, esp profitable growth *ahem* nvda as king and will remain as such).
- but 3x (cash adjusted) PE, 40-50% fcf yield. i'd say you're not taking a massive risk here as a small LT set and forget punt. looked at options but given the election, the fact i can only go until Jan 2025 and premiums are high on a day like today, i'd probably only consider them if we get a further risk off move closer to the $10 zone and especially below.
- i'm in for 50 bps starter here. idea is a longer-term position and possibly grow it. like the entry is the tl;dr
- take a look. what am i missing?
V
Nota
taking half off the table here w/ stonk +9.5% on the day to $12.7. a full $1 move looks like a healthy retracement. happy to keep my meme stake at this pt, but i genuinely don't like little positions so will figure out what to do, perhaps if we get a follow up move tmr i'll clear out of it. think the stock is probably worth $15 all else equal, but in this tape idk if i want to FAFO and get yandex'd - which the USSA still marks at zero in my portfolio. i suspect that's half the reason this trades so absurdly cheap.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.