Gold Weekly Review and Next Week Analysis

Weekly analysis of spot gold: Multiple factors drive sharp fluctuations, and the market focuses on the Fed's policy signals
Market review: Cooling of risk aversion and strong US dollar suppress gold prices
Spot gold continued its adjustment trend this week, falling 2.28% on a weekly basis to close at $3,240.60/ounce, down about 7% from the historical high of $3,500.05/ounce on April 22. Market fluctuations are mainly driven by the following factors:

Weakened safe-haven demand: Market expectations of easing trade tensions have weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.

Strong US economic data: Non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in March, far exceeding expectations, pushing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields up simultaneously, further suppressing the holding cost of interest-free assets gold.

Expectations of a Fed rate cut have cooled: After the release of employment data, the market lowered the probability of a rate cut in June to less than 50%, and the repricing of interest rate prospects put pressure on gold prices.

In terms of geopolitics, the potential risks of the situation between Russia and Ukraine provide some support for gold prices, but the rebound in risk appetite in global stock markets (especially the US S&P 500 index, which rebounded 17% from its low in April) limits the rise of gold.

Technical analysis: The game between long and short intensifies, and the key range is to be broken
Daily level: Gold price closed near the middle track of the Bollinger Band (US$3239.61/ounce). Although the MACD short momentum has weakened, it still dominates overall.

4-hour level: The Bollinger Band narrowed, and the MACD formed a weak golden cross, indicating that the short-term rebound momentum is accumulating, but no trend signal has been formed yet.

Key range: US$3220-3260/ounce is the core area of ​​the current long and short competition. If it breaks through US$3260/ounce, the upper resistance will be US$3300-3350/ounce; if it falls below US$3220/ounce, it may fall to the support level of US$3150/ounce.

Institutional views diverge: long and short logics intertwined
Bearish view:

Gold is under significant technical correction pressure after hitting its historical high. If the trade situation eases further or US economic data continues to be strong, gold prices may continue to fall.

The Fed's expectation of maintaining high interest rates supports the US dollar, which has long suppressed gold. The technical downward trend has not yet shown a reversal signal.

Bullish view:

Potential weakness in the US economy (such as repeated inflation and subsequent weakening of the job market) may prompt the Fed to turn to easing, and the safe-haven property of gold will be re-focused.

Geopolitical uncertainties (such as escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict) or a deadlock in trade negotiations may quickly boost safe-haven demand.

Next week's outlook: Fed policy and economic data are the focus
May FOMC meeting: The market generally expects the Fed to remain on hold, but Chairman Powell's speech may release new signals about the interest rate path. If the statement is hawkish, gold prices may be under pressure again.

Economic data:

ISM Services PMI (Monday): If the data exceeds expectations, it will further strengthen the narrative of "US economic resilience" and be bearish for gold.

Initial jobless claims (Thursday): Labor market dynamics are an important reference for the Fed's policies, and data fluctuations may trigger short-term trading opportunities.

Geopolitical and trade risks: It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the trend of trade negotiations. Any unexpected escalation may trigger safe-haven buying.

Technical trading strategy:

Break through $3,260/ounce: You can try long with a light position, with a target of $3,300/ounce.

Lose $3,220/ounce: Be alert to further explore the support area of ​​$3,150-3,165/ounce.

Conclusion
The gold market is currently in a sensitive stage of adjustment and direction selection, and macroeconomic policy expectations and technical game jointly dominate price fluctuations. Investors need to pay close attention to the Fed's policy signals and economic data performance, and flexibly adjust their positions to cope with potential risks. In the short-term volatile pattern, it is recommended to focus on range trading, and in the medium and long term, it is necessary to observe the changes in the fundamentals of the US economy and global risk sentiment.