MQP PRESENTS - SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE PART 2
HEADER - Updated again.
SUMMARY - Today's price action says this now to 8/15. Slower and lower. The money gets pushed to after NFP report. 2145 instead of 2200.
DETAILS - This is where we are now. Check out previous posts for background. Links below. I will update as much as possible through 8/15.
SUMMARY - Today's price action says this now to 8/15. Slower and lower. The money gets pushed to after NFP report. 2145 instead of 2200.
DETAILS - This is where we are now. Check out previous posts for background. Links below. I will update as much as possible through 8/15.
Nota
NOTES 1 - 5:00 PM ET, TUES 8/1.1) I am not "being stubborn" here with this call for ATH
2) I have to bring this back to 2145 and taper down price action for this week
3) besides that, I have completed due diligence, over and over...
4) considering the position of all the waves...
5) we are oversold AF...
6) if there's something worth adding before ADP 8:30 AM ET tomorrow,
7) I will add here ASAP
Nota
NOTES 2 - 6:00 PM ET, TUES 8/1, 1951.XX1) got the spike we needed to start this right off the bat
2) it does not solve our short term problems yet
3) but does make it easier
4) I ran waves again and I am confident still of a target above 2130
5) I still have reasons for 2160, not great ones
6) all this still dependent on next hours of price action
Nota
7) 6:19 PM ET, if price hold tight at 1950.xx here for an hour ...8) it will move to 1954-1955
9) it doesn't seem like much ..
10) but it changes what's possible for tomorrow a big way
Nota
11) 6:26 PM ET... odds don't favor it doing that of course12) next major move expected around 11 PM ET give or take
13) how big that move is depended on what price does next 4.5 hours or so
14) holding a flat line at 1950 is very bullish (odds favor retest of 1945 of course)
Nota
6:53 PM, 8/1 - ATTEMPTING 1954-19551) 1-min bars favor 1952-53
2) hard to say beyond that
Nota
3) 7:11 PM ET, 8/1, hit 1952.5 and retraced4) can't say it's done going up yet
5) there's support inside hours ... this implies sideways to up and move to 1957
6) this would be roughly 10:30 PM ET if support hold
7)
Nota
7)... the important part is next 30 min, so until 8:45 PM ET8) price needs to mini step up up to 1952-1953
9) going to 1949 sets up rug pull
10) right this second, bulls have upper hand
Nota
7:39 PM ET, 1957 IS IN PLAY1) driving now, can't say when exactly
2) reaction at 1957 is giant determinant for Wed ADP
3) while I doubt bulls can undo the technical damage today all in 1 overnight session... it's not crazy to suggest 1965 gets hit before NY open
Nota
8:17 PM, 1950.XX1) need to to tag 1947.xx
2) before 1957
Nota
9:21 PM, tagged 1947.xx moments ago...1) window to correct this morning's damage (overnight) has closed
2) bulls have opportunity to go to 1957 by 3:30 AM ET if..
3) price goes sideways 1947-1949 for 2 hours
Nota
8/1, 11:33 PM ET, 1948.xx, READY TO MOVE UP? 1) looks like it's going to attempt 1956-1957 next
2) 2-3 hours should do it
3) I'm going bedsy
Nota
4) will add in the AM as soon as I wake upNota
WED 8/2 2:30 AM ET, 1949.XX1) 3 hours and nowhere, with a checkdown in between
2) trends say price NEED TO move up past 1953-1957 SOON, like 90 min
3) bulls hesitation here not a good sign
4) it's only 8 points down for a retest of yesterday's floor, that can happen anytime
Nota
WED 8/2 7:39 AM ET, LOCKED, LOADED, WAITING ON PRICE. 1) we are in position for that continuous vertical move up
2) we are waiting on price only
3) price needs a trigger
4) there is one trigger at 51 minutes from now at the first arrow in chart at top
5) and that is ADP jobs report (improved version no less)
6) on 11- min bars it looks like five 1-2 in a row for elliot wave counters
7) the moment of truth has come
Nota
8) 14 min later 1950.xx, raise hard stop to 1843.5Nota
9) hard stop meaning exit all long positions... and it would be overNota
9:17 AM ET STOPPED OUT, ENTRY SHORTNota
9:56 PM 1945.xx TRIPPLE SHORT ENTRY1) major targets 1920, 1906, 1892, 1865
2) by 8/15
Nota
10:50 AM ET first stop will be around 12:30 PM ET1) working on bear route
2) looks like 1865 may get hit by next Thursday 8/10
3) this is a pretty solid target once 1943.5 was hit
Nota
10:57 AM ET, trippled position agaibNota
1) roughly at 19352) so all in 9/9 for this short
Nota
3) my SL 1938.25Nota
12:14 PM ET, I DIDNT GET STOPPED OUT.1) watching so I made it 1839
2) 1839 hard stop for this one
Nota
3) moved stop back down to 1937.75Nota
4) that was at 12:19 PM5) I am not watching this again until 8 PM ET, I think we will see 1927 by then
Nota
9:18 PM ET WED NIGHT, 1936.xx1) re entry short with 8/9 GCV23 1950 PUTS
2) at this point, 1936 spot is 1952 GCV23 (GC OCTOBER 23 CONTRACT]
3) so essentially 1934 spot puts expiring 1:30 PM ET WED 8/9
Nota
4) no stopNota
5) paid $10.30 (so 1033.xx)Nota
6) target 1923-ish, depending on whenNota
Friday, 8/3, 12:57 AM ET. COVER ALL SHORTS 1934.xx1) I can't handicap NFP
2) it looks like a bull with intermediate to long
3) but the short trends are a bear set up
4) implies a spike down and back up, all the way up
5) that's all
Nota
8/4 FRIDAY, 1:20 AM ET -- END OF POST: HERE IS NEXT ONE:
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