Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | July 30

✅ Fundamental Analysis
🔹 Short-Term Decline in Safe-Haven Demand:
Recent developments, including the U.S.-EU tariff agreement and the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks, have temporarily eased market tensions, weakening gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

🔹 Dollar Rebound Pressures Gold:
The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded sharply after a second bottoming attempt, breaking above the key 98.10 resistance level. This strengthened pressure on gold and limited its upward potential.

🔹 FOMC Rate Decision in Focus:
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision today. The market’s focus is on whether a signal for a potential rate cut in September will be delivered.

If the statement is hawkish, downplaying the chances of a rate cut, the dollar may strengthen further, possibly pushing gold to test support near $3300.

If the Fed adopts a dovish tone or hints at a September rate cut, it may trigger a breakout above the $3350 resistance level.

🔹 Key U.S. Economic Data Ahead:
Today also brings the release of ADP employment data and the Q2 GDP revision.

If GDP growth exceeds expectations (>2.0%), it may strengthen the case for prolonged higher interest rates, which would be bearish for gold.

If data disappoints, it could reinforce dovish expectations and support a rebound in gold prices.

✅ Technical Analysis
🔸 Gold continues to fluctuate within the $3333–$3320 range, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed decision.
🔸 Short-term price action still favors the bearish side, but strong support below and persistent geopolitical risks are offering some downside protection for gold.

🔴 Resistance Levels: 3355 / 3375 / 3380
🟢 Support Levels: 3310 / 3300 / 3280

✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If the price rebounds to the 3355–3365 zone, consider light short positions
⛔Stop-loss: Above 3380
🎯 Target: Around 3320

🔰 If the price pulls back and stabilizes around 3310–3300, consider short-term long positions
⛔ Stop-loss: Below 3285
🎯 Target: 3340

🔰 If the price breaks below 3300, bearish momentum may extend toward 3280
🔰 If the price breaks above 3355, the bearish structure will likely fail, and gold may resume its upward trend

✅ With the market entering a high-impact news period at month-end, volatility is expected to increase significantly. Traders should set stop-losses strictly and manage position sizes carefully to mitigate the risks of sudden market moves.