PREPWORK FOR 54 HOURS su FX_IDC:XAUUSD di Binary_Forecasting_Service

PREPWORK FOR 54 HOURS

HEADER - This is follow up to previous work.

SUMMARY - Bulls getting tired, but not quite ready to die. Probably waiting for CPI release in about 22 hours from now.

DETAILS - See previous work, links are below. But basically aiming for 1767 to close this week

NOTES - Will add as we go.

Nota

10/11 10:54 AM ET. Nothing exciting for another 22 hours, says short term regression map.
a) so yeah, we have to get through 2 more boxes for that money maker
b) will see where we are at late tonight

Nota

c) I left the blue hilight in bc it's still bothering me
d) odds are low, but not low enough to ignore

Nota

12:57 PM ET touched 1877 a bit ago...
1) not a big deal
2) can go to 1880 as long as it's within 15 min of FED minutes release
3) the odds of going 1880 AND HOLD are low
4) despite the stretchup, the setup still shows that closing Friday 1767 odds higher than 1920

Nota

1:31 PM ET the latest this run can go on? is 6-7 PM.

1) this red route would generate massive vol
2) in the 12 hours after CPI release

Nota

2:11 PM ET 1871.xx, no reaction to FED MIN means 1880 still has 4 to 5 hours to get hit
a) still early
b) but bulls still not ready to die...

Nota

c) it's not favored to but it can...

Nota

d) in extrapolations right now, we are still crashing HARD AFTER CPI...
e) its just how hard are we talking about

Nota

5:22 PM 1880 SHOULD GET HOTT AHEAD OF 8:30 PM ET
1) I would enter short here
2) my entry should be 2/3 1880 puts, 1/3 1880 call

Nota

3) typo HIT, not HOTT

Nota

9:52 PM ET 1878.xx
1) the problem is not price
2) the problem is time
3) we have to stick to the facts
4) aiming for 1880
5) let's see reaction there by 3AM ET
6] then we can talk more

Nota

7) the 2 lines in the chart above cross right at CPI release
8) trend says higher right now unless that diagonal breaks down early
9) and until either of them break there's really nothing to talk about

Nota

6:18 AM ET 1881.XX
1) so we broke the 1880 resistance, retested and seems like it's heading higher
2) so the down side risk is that price is hugging the diagonal support tightly and has not moved off of it (so up) much
3) in this case this line is what you watch for
4) with that said, the next two markers up are 1890 and 1925
5) if that diagonal holds today, I have to believe 1890-91 gets hit

Nota

8:28 AM ET 1883.XX
1) I haven't posted a lot bc there's a lot for me to post
2) this move from 1810 is irregular in several different ways
3) so as long as it keeps trend, it keeps moving up
4) but I can't forecast that bc the intermediate trends run into the long ones
5) and we just have to wait for it to work itself out

Nota

6) first reaction after CPI release is 1885, then 1880, then???
7) it broke that line underneath
8) but it doesn't mean anything... yet

Nota

9) here's that line:

Nota

10) it's the first move that matters, it's the second sometimes third
11) price is reactionary so while that line has broken. the trends that built that line....
12) has not changed
13) unless it breaks AND HOLD for as long as it takes for the waves to to turn
14) this is why "stick-saves" do not change what the waves look like except on 1-min bars and smaller

Nota

15) here's 4-min bars w/ the selected important waves on:

Nota

16) it has barely moved
17) so if price swings hard up in 4-min (I'm not saying it will or not), I'm saying if...
18) then the waves do not change at all
19) and w/ the way price action works is the "EVENT" (usually 8:30 AM ET) makes a move
20) then the "OPEN" (9:30 AM ET) confirms or reverses
21) while I've made my bearish bias known...
22) I have to respect price action until I can short the move

Nota

23) so here are the lines that determine price action going down, bc we have decent momentum now:

Nota

24) the first target is obviously 1872-ish
25) the second target is:

Nota

26) is 1855 and 1850...
27) if bears are serious, we hit both of those by 3PM ET

Nota

28) really?
29) yes really.... because the setup makes that target available for momentum to hit
30) and IF THEY DON'T HIT IT, then we have weak bears
31) meaning?
32) medium-sized zigzag sideways to down for days

Nota

33) I "think" that max pain for bulls or max bear vol is 1817-1822 by 9:30 PM ET
34) but indicators and forecasts are just fog, price is fact
35) we have to see where it takes us
40) we will know after market opens

Nota

41) 9:43 AM ET 1874.xx broke pre market low

Nota

42) ok, yesterday when I said the two lines that would dictate price action, here it is again with a newly minted third line:

Nota

43) in chart above, we got the first box basically
44) the "reasonable volatility" levels say after 1872 (which we hit a minute ago), it's 1855 and 1849
45) then obviously close the gap at 1832 and previous equilibrium at 1817-1820
46) the reasonable volatility says all this "may" happen by 9:30 PM ET, but that's probably too tight, so let's just say midnight tonight

Nota

47) this third line is not meant to be a "resistance line", it is simply top-to-bottom time limit for this set of curves
48) hence, price could easily do this:

Nota

49) I have to run, so that's all I've got for today
50) remember, if it moves off the presented plan, just assume I'm wrong and I need to update, trade defensively
51) and please please please if my work helps you trade, please introduce it to someone by word of mouth, it's the only way forward for this work

Nota

52) and to answer this question: why does it have to come down so fast???
53) it DOES NOT HAVE TO, but if you make me pick a route RIGHT THIS SECOND BEFORE ANY CHANGES... that's the route I'm going with bc the reasonable volatility says so

Nota

54) and if and when it changes and I have time to give you that update I will ....
55) and you can help me provide more continuous updates by introducing my work to someone by word of mouth
56) thanks, have a great trading day, and good luck!

Nota

57) BTW, from where things are RIGHT NOW... if this line breaks:

Nota

58) odds of moving to 1855 and 1849 are REALLY high, but again IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE TODAY
59) but if you make me guess based on the math, that's my guess, TODAY

Nota

10/12 11:01 AM ET - NEXT 60 MIN IS SUPER CRITICAL FOR BOTH SIDES
1) it's one of those spots that make or break both sides of the trade
2) if bears intend to take out reasonable volatility, they NEED TO break hard under 1867
3) if bulls intend to change the picture, this is the place to to do it, bc it gets harder and harder as it price approaches the gap

Nota

4) 11:05 AM ET after tagging 1870.xx on IDC/ICE XAUUSD ticker...
5) bulls have a setup for 1876 next
6) whether or not they take it here is BIG DEAL

Nota

7) and what determines that?
8) money flow

Nota

11:19 AM FROM MY CAR: WHATS IT GONNA B?

Nota

11:34 at 1871.xx almost a lack of interest by both sides... spike is coming, but which way?

Nota

11:45 AM ET 1872.XX
1) my theory on price action is that it is a tug-of-war but you get penalized for hesitation
2) bears have until 12:15 to MAKE bulls hesitate
3) and if so until 1:00 PM ET to make bulls pay for it

Nota

4) 12:26 PM ET bears held 1873-74, now 1871.xx
5) bears now have momentum
6) they HAVE TO PROVE that they are legit
7) that legitimacy is defined by regression trends as 1865-1867 by 1:20 PM ET

Nota

8) this means that if bears can't make it...
9) out entire plan for today could be scrapped; but that the nature of price action
10) however at 12:33 PM ET and 1871.47 bears ARE FAVORED TO MAKE IT

Nota

12:54 PM ET, and we are here again:

Nota

1) for chart above:
2) this is what I mean by conditional favorite
3) bears are the favorite here
4) but they HAVE TO win here to keep that favorite position

Nota

5) bears are encroaching the suspicion time
6) it's when you start making hard stops to keep your hard earned money

Nota

7) bears win! about dawn time:

8) in chart above, bears need 1865-67 so not quite yet

Nota

9) so look, I think I've proven now that:
A) if I watch price ALL THE TIME with my indicator
B) I can tell you what's about to happen, roughly speaking, better than any I've seen do it live
C) but I do this as A HOBBY..
D) so please please help me by introducing my work to other people by word of mouth
E) the more people show interest ... the more I can do this as a future

Nota

1:25 PM I GOTTA GET BACK TO WORK, SO:
1) bears need to hold that line now...
2) 30-45 min
3) and bulls should give up
4) but watch out for a reversal above it

Nota

5) meanwhile EVERYONE CAN SEE THAT LINE IS BROKEN
6) the after a short fight for lower, the machines should take us to 1855 and 1849

Nota

7) as usual, if price moves against expectations, assume I was wrong and need to update

Nota

1:45 PM ET I can't post any until later tonight but:

1) if we hold it here
2) we are moving to second box at 1849-1855
3) we DONT HAVE TO before ... 8 PM ET
4) but we are but RIGHT NOW...
5) we are FAVORED TO UNTIL OTHERWISE

Nota

6) hold on, make that 9:30 PM

Nota

7) this is the 3 lines that dictates price, and WILL UNTIL IT WONT:

Nota

5:23 PM ET 1868.XX so we're going to get to 1820 by 1:30 PM ET FRIDAY.
1) if early, it could be 5 AM
2) if late, it could be near FRIDAY CLOSE
3) in either case we are on track for 1820 before this week is over
4) that's what I think I know now
5) as always, if it changes, I will try my best to update you
6) but if things move off track...and I dont show up with notes
7) assume I'm wrong and trade defensively

Nota

8) but we could move to 1875 before we crash
9) that's what I see now

Nota

10/12, ,10:19 PM ET 1873.40, THIS NEEDS TO STOP HERE!!

Nota

a) for chart above:
b) bears need to show up here in a big way
c) bulls are beginning to change regression curves in a major way
d) from time to time, I often say the problem is not price, but it's time
e) that's not exactly true, it is"HOW LONG PRICE HOLD A SPECIFIC LEVEL"
f) so price has been over 1871 long enough that without a hard move down by 11:30 PM ET to 1866 or lower...
g) I would have BIG QUESTIONS on what happpens next... bc it's suspicious looking AF

Nota

h) what's weird is these suspicious moments happen so often during the asian market hours...

Nota

10/13 7:11 1891.xx, SUSPICIOUS INDEED
a) if you've been following my notes in the last month
b) suspicious means I see something coming the opposite direction (but don't have enough evidence for it)
c) and I don't have risk on, so I go to bed

Nota

d) from here on out, I will explicitly say what suspicious mean so you can have a view of what "could be shaping up"
e) that's about the only way to clear all bases when I'm not looking

Nota

f) so now we have taken out 1885
g) this implies 1920 all the way to 2050
h) why?
i) in the last week we were covering 2 outcomes from 1885
j) last Friday, I brought up 2010-2059 first
k) but the evidence showed rug pull coming after Wed or Thu, but it stopped at 1868
l) past 1875 last night, would've been the point to look all the way up

Nota

10/13 7:34 AM ET, 3 SCENARIOS exist today
1) up more grually
2) vertical crash to 1855
3) both in that order
4) I don't know what the odds are right now

Nota

5) let's get the basics out of the way
6) first the 2 major lines bulls want:

Nota

7) but before that, it needs to break this first:

Nota

8) so for today, there are two ceilings 1902 and 1925 (unlikely)
9) should it retest 1885 first?

Nota

10) we will see but here's 4-min bars:

Nota

11) and here we are already

Nota

12) and it just went through it going absolutely nuts

Nota

13) and first reaction sell off:

Nota

14) for this type of move you need to have some lines on there...
15) here is background:

Nota

16) add this (4 min bar):

Nota

17) and this too (but I took out the box, just be aware that line is what bulls are aiming for:

Nota

18) so now we have:

Nota

19) and 2-min bar again, you have an idea of what's happening:

Nota

20) so it's GOING TO DO 1 OF 5 THINGS
21) either each of those lines become support or they all fail
22) that means:

Nota

10/13 8:27 AM just went vertical to 1905.xx and it's 8:27 AM ET
1) in 2 mins there will be a rug pull
2) the machines do this bc they like 8:30 event marker
3) whether or not there is a big event

Nota

4) here we go... if it keeps going then 1925

Nota

8:35 AM ET saw 1916.... they want 1925-26, it's almost a sure thing now
1) bc there will be at least one more top after this one
2) and it's 1918 already

Nota

3) if it hits 1925-1926 SHORT IT HERE W/ 1926.75 STOP

Nota

4) I gotta run, but today this is the line to watch:

Nota

10/13 8:56 AM ET... I think bulls want 1950 at least.
a) why? bc regressionally speaking, 1925 changes nothing in the bull/bear debate
b) regain bull position for the coming 28 months
c) bulls NEED 1950 at least....
d) bc, after that they check down.... and move for 2010-2050
e) in theory, that's what we are watching for
f) so I posted this last week in notes:

Nota

g) it's basically a "stretched out version of this move
h) but again, that's really tough to forecast bc something's not right with it...
i) it's like if it really wanted to do it, it shouldve been 2010-2050 TODAY
j) bc it would "fit the curves"
k) the only way to "fit the curves" now, is an explosive week next week...
l) OR CLOSING TODAY 1950

Nota

m) here, replay this one from a few days ago vs the bull curve:

Nota

Nota

n) see? too slow
o) so it's really bothering me from my perspective bc it causes me to hesitate on incoming price action
p) but ultimately there's 2 paths now for next week

Nota

q) the trend follower in me says bull
r) the regression wave fitter in me says too slow for bull (hence it tried to make up for lost time today)

Nota

9:17 AM AHEAD OF NY OPEN: so it's going to that line I said to watch earlier:

Nota

a) for chart above: if bulls are legit and it seems like they are
b) they bounce that line and take out 1925-26
c) IN THIS CASE, DON'T SHORT IT W/O AN EXTREME TIGHT STOP LIKE 1926.5-1926.75

Nota

d) bc like I said, IF IF IF IF bulls are making up for lost time w/ this set of curves
e) they need 1950 and they needed 2-3 days ago

Nota

f) we will know some time in the next day or two (Sunday and Monday) if it really wants 2010-2050, let's just call it 2030 to make it easy
g) don't get discouraged, you didn't miss out anything
h) I said last week's NFP that I was rooting for the bull scenario EVEN THOUGH I HAD A BEARISH BIAS
i) bc if this scenario plays, we are going to murder gold price action the coming 26-28 months

Nota

j) so it just tagged:

Nota

k) I think it holds here and takes it to 1925-26, maybe more...
l) so if you go long here hard stop right under neath it

Nota

m) hard stop: don't be wishy washy

Nota

n) got hit but I rebought same stop

Nota

o) then why not lower your stop?
p) a stop is a STOP, you can always rebuy

Nota

r) now trail your stops!!

Nota

s) I have to go, can't help from my car bc it's hard AF to type and drive
t) have good weekend

Nota

10:35 AM ET WRAP UP:

a) as I said earlier, this is the line to watch
b) but you are going to know which line unless you have at least 5 to choose from
c) and it also let's you what comes after that line fails
d) right now it is 1915-1916
e) I see 1918, 1925‐26
f) I don't know I'd that will hold
g) nevermind Israeli invasion of Gaza...
h) if gold bulls want their position back they need 1950 and they needed it 2 days ago
i) have an open mind should it move to 1928, it wants 1950

Nota

j) conversly...
k) if NATO-RUSSIA proxy (ukraine) is worth 300 on the eve of invasion...
l) tell me why Israel-Hamas is more than 115?
m) bc we are on the eve of Israel's Gaza invasion

Nota

n) invasion means sell the news
o) so my read should price fail to move higher..
p) is ... we will see

Nota

r) at the high, CONDITIONAL FAVORITE FOR 1925-26 AND MORE

Nota

11:00 AM ET 1920.xx back to the scene of the crime...
a) remember when we ht 6 boxes for 6?

Nota

Nota

b) replay chart above BUT ZOOM OUT SO YOU CAN THE HIGH OF HILIGHTS....
c) so in order to RECLAIM BULL POSITION
d) we have to do the rest of that move
e) to 2030-ish, 2050 then even better

Nota

f) so keep that in mind, and don't be surprised by anything

Nota

g) as a warning bears have rugpull setup for 1906 if 1915 breaks

Nota

12:17 PM ET 1925.xx
a) so got there as expected
b) becareful long bc bears setup now moves to 1903
c) whether or not they take is another issue
b) bc like I said, bulls needed 1950 2 days ago

Nota

e) know your trend lines:

Nota

f) bulls have momentum right?
g) it almost doesn't matter unless they close strong ( 1938+)
h) why? bc to regain position bulls need 1950
i) so they can checkdown for 1925 and move for 2030
j) but Israel move for Gaza is old news by Monday
k) so give me a reason to believe bulls are back
l) and I can't believe it yet if they close 1920

Nota

10/13 7:41 PM ET 1932.xx CLOSED AT THE AFTER MARKET HIGH.

Nota

1. will add notes later
2. stayed tuned
3. we have 27 exciting months ahead of us

Nota

4. please please please please help me by letting other know
5. I need an incentive to do this, especially in moments when I don't have risk on
6. word of mouth, to people you know
7. but trust me when I say this
8. I have cracked the code, both long and short
9. and God MAY HAVE blessed us with the PERFECT MOMENT FOR THIS CODE TO BE USED
10. while there still reason to doubt the gold bull market...
11. one thing is not in doubt
12. I'm going to make you real money if you keep up with my notes

Nota

8:25 PM ET WHY DO I DOUBT THE GOLD BULL MARKET?
1) I was a believer since 2015-2016
2) gold has had 5 opportunities to go 2080
3) and it has been rejected 5 for 5
4) as of RIGHT NOW, it does NOT HAVE BULL POSITION
5) it has an opportunity to RECOVER BULL POSITION this coming week
6) don't give old news, give me "brand new" news as reasons why this should break out to 2030
7) bc all the old news has been processed today
8) and we couldn't even do 1938 close
9) why does that matter more than 1932.xx at the high?
10) at 1938, odds favor a move to 1950 AND SURVIVE THE FIRST CHECK DOWN
11) and remember, MASSIVE GAP AT 1832-1847, this is NOT A SMALL GAP

Nota

12) fractal comparison REQUIRES PRICE TO IGNORE THAT GAP and STILL BE LATE for bull position or the next high
13) how can price be late?
14) the same reason being late for a double bottom is a sign of a true bottom

Nota

15) so late for a top is sign of a true top

Nota

16) with ALL THAT SAID , the odds odds a dice landing on 6 is 1 in 6
17) this may just me the 1 in 6
18) but we can't think and strategize like that
19) bulls HAVE TO PROVE IT

Nota

9:19 M ET, 10/13 - THIS REQUIRES YOU PAY ATTENTION TO THE NEWS
a) so first news that hit my scanner is "ISRAEL DELAYS INVASION OF GAZA..." BLAH BLAH BLAH
b) so what does that mean?
c) first, if there is NO NEWS OF A DELAY and they invaded... it would be SELL THE NEWS OF THE INVASION
d) but now there's A DELAYED INVASION OR MAYBE NO INVASION...
e) MASSIVE RUGPULL SUNDAY NIGHT

Nota

f) I'm not saying IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN
g) I'm saying you HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR IT
h) and should it play, it will play like this vs 5 min bars from the week before:

Nota

i) in chart above's scenario:
j) we COULD BE AT 1820 AT NOON ON MONDAY
k) AGAIN...
l) if you held a gun to my head and say what do I think happens next 24 hours of trading?
m) I would say HARD CRASH LIKE THAT
n) AGAIN .... just right now though
o) give me NEW news and NEW price action and I will give you a NEW answer

Nota

p) NOW SCRAP ALL OF THAT
q) let's say HAMAS surprise attack on Saturday and Israel invades Gaza Saturday night
r) and gold bulls keep it up
s) here's what a fractal of that situation look like:

Nota

t) in chart above, see why I said bulls NEED 1950, but I needed at least 1938 close?
u) in the fractal on the left, we are at the two LONG BULL BARS, that when it closes...
v) should clear the mess to the left...
w) we DO NOT HAVE THAT... and if we continue w/ blue arrows on the right...
x) it's A STRETCH to say we get past 1960.... which is not good enough for our bollingers here
y) our bollingers demand 2010 minimum 2080 maximum, but I'll settle for 2030

Nota

z) the clue here is look at the chart on the left where the two big bull bars begin, for the right IT'S TOO LOW

Nota

z1) GIVEN ALL OF THAT... I WAS STILL SUSPICIOUS OF IT LAST NIGHT... and said "looks suspicious AF"
z2) but DIDN'T HAVE enough evidence to say "oh it's going to be 1920 tomorrow"
z3) if you read the the top of this post, in the beginning, I had said that "odds of 1920 for this Friday (today) is lower than 1767", this was at the beginning of this post...

Nota

z4) but if you go here:

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z5) go to notes on 10/09 at 9:46 PM ET...

Nota

z6) so that's Monday, four days ago, I wrote at "d" & "e":
>>> d) 1920 is favored vs 1760
>>> e) but 1760 is favored over 2010
z7) so I foresaw this week closing 1920 earlier in the week
z8) but Thursday evening based ON THE FACTS WE HAD, it was about impossible to call that to happen TODAY...
z9) it took Israel warning of GAZA invasion in 24 hours FOR THAT TO CHANGE...
z10) AND I WAS STILL PREPARED FOR THAT MENTALLY
z11) just wished I would've woke up at 4:30 or 5:00

Nota

z12) so all I just stated tonight is ... BE MENTALLY PREPARED FOR THE SCENARIOS PLAYING OUT
z13) don't be "MARRIED TO AN IDEA", let price action tell you what it wants

Nota

z14) SO?
z15) base case for Sunday-Monday is massive rug pull
z16) but I'm not married to it...

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Z17) gold vs silver IRK 12/16 ratio

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Z18) silver does not believe the geo politics hype

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10:37 PM ET -- someone asked me how I got 2080 rejection 5 times when they counted 3 tops:

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a) Im counting the "legit wave breakout setups", not the price tops
b) even the Aug 2020 setup was AFTER the top...

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SATURDAY 10/14 8:37 AM ET -- So I talked about 3 routes already and they look roughly like this:

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a) for chart above:
b) this is not meant to be true to to anything, this is just to prevent "failure of imagination"
c) but there's one more very legit route we need to add

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d) so this is the overlay of this move from 2020

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e) so then:

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f) this move from 2020 is TOO WIDE TO compare vs our move right now
g) so? so we compress it ROUGHLY PROPORTIONALLY
h) the four arrows from top is too guide the four arrows at the bottom so we can have
i) a strong estimate of what that tail should look like
j) removing all the junk leaves us with this:

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k) so here's all four, with a ROUGHLY EXPANDED BLUE ROUTE:

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l) blue route is IRL(linear regressionally)-projected trend continuation

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m) here, this is more like it and kind of shows why:

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n) so, in theory we get very close to 1500 by mid March 2024
o) if you read my notes often, REMEMBER I SAID THIS TODAY
p) wait but you thought I said, "gun to my head, I pick Sun-Mon crash hard, blah blah"
q) I did, but that's my Sun-Mon coming up view
r) the IRL-blue route is My 150-day view
s) and no, they don't have to agree
u) I can accept opposing point of views at the same time bc I'm not married to an idea

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v) so that's intermediate view... let's deal with Sunday-Monday first
w) first the Sunday-Monday reasonable volatility ceiling and floor is 1960 and ..

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x) 1865

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y) some trend lines, and resulting likely zone of price action in a the smaller rectangle:

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z) remove the junk and this is trading basis for Sun-Mon

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z1) all of those notes since Friday close loosely in mind (bc don't get stressed out by it, you just gotta be aware of them)
z2) with the trading basis, which is 4 lines and 2 rectangles
z3) the rest we leave up to price action

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z4) but pay attention to Israel news, bc that's THE DRIVER OF OF PRICE OF PRICE RIGHT NOW..

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10/14, 11:19 AM ET. GREAT DEFINITION OF PRICE BEING LATE EARLY:

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a) for chart above in compare/contrast of the two "V" moves
b) so the left side, the steepness (absolute value of the slope) of the move down is greater than the steepness of the rebound
c) meaning to "recover bull position", price has to get back to that level FASTER THAN IT CAME DOWN
d) that DIDN'T HAPPEN
e) for the right side, the steepness of the move down is less than the steepness of the rebound
f) meaning that DID HAPPEN
g) in theory that should hold things over AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
h) as opposed to hard move down

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i) BUT... you have to take into account FAILURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH
j) like this:

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k) now we have:

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l) in chart above, first and foremost, we are early bc numbers are numbers
m) the problems with bull thesis here are:
1) the world needs more stressful news to take us to 30 by end OF 10/20 WEEK OR TUESDAY 10/24 AT THE ABSOLUTE LATEST, this means "hold the slope"
2) the slope of the reversal, check down or check up depending on which way is more or less tied to the move preceding it
n) so the chart above illustrate theoretical reaction....
o) but for bulls to regain bull position it lost since 9/12 it has to OVERCORRECT LIKE THIS:

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q) so bulls no doubt HAVE THE BURDEN OF PROOF

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r) so the evidence stacks the bear side
s) but if you've read my notes last 3 weeks
t) I've said several times that the 300 trading day picture points at 1760-ish
u) but the 100 YEAR picture point at 2010-2050, really even 2080 and higher
w) but remember the 5 times it's been shot down? I said this morning:

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x) EACH OF THOSE TIMES, THE 100 YEAR PICTURE SAID BREAKOUT TOO...
y) at some point, I stopped believing

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10/14 BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN I STOPPED RESPECTING ITS POSSIBILITY
a) let's knock a couple things out of the park

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b) replay this one:

MQP IRL CONTINUOUS DEMO 12C - 2 DAYS LEFT FOR PERFECT ENTRY

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c) that was January 28, 2022 prior to NATO-Russia proxy of Ukraine war
d) hit the part, didn't hit the second part

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e) and then replay this one from March 11, 2022 calling top and die gold die!

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f) HOLD ON A MINUTE --
g) I've been wrong MORE THAN I'VE BEEN RIGHT PRIOR TO last month
h) a whole bunch of times
i) NEVERTHELESS, in between, when I got right ...
j) it was dead on right

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k) now replay this from 11/11/22 (last november)

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MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6, I'M TOO SLOW

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l) this one is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT... because I HAD THOUGHT IT DEAD FOR A LONG TIME... (outdated needing an update)
m) but if you really look at it when you replay it
n) I titled that post very right OR very wrong...

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o) because it was too slow for the until this May/June, but it was too fast from that point UNTIL NOW...
p) now if you want to talk about central bank gold purchases... that's a scary thought combined with this chart
q) bc it does say that the 100 year view SHOULD BE CORRECT
r) but all that is from MONTHS AND MONTHS AGO
s) I am way more capable now of handling 2-way price action
t) which leads me to:

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l) this from July 11th , so 3 months ago:

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m) replay of that one shows it STARTED OFF BULL
n) then TURNED BEAR
o) then CAME TO YESTERDAY'S SURPRISE ....
p) all of that leads me to this:
q) I have demonstrated my awareness of subjects that include almost the old realm of gold pricing
r) from history, to forecasts, to FED meetings, FED minutes, CPI, PPI, ADP, NFP, even new moon/full moon subjects...
s) but if you've read my notes the since 9/12 ...
t) I've demontstrated the ability to short term predict where price is going
u) as long as I am watching prices ALL THE TIME...
v) but I am closing on 40 years old, I am not going to chase a ghost dream that I have for 7.5 years
w) when I can make 10-12k a month in a 60-hour-week job that's real security for my family
x) because my family comes before some stupid dream to forecast prices for gold, or anything....
y) so this is where you come in to this picture
z) I need your help to do this and why?
1) I can't keep doing this when there's no real interest in making this a reality
2) and the only way to do that is your spreading my work to by word of mouth to others
3) so I could convince my wife this is something I should keep doing
4) the other to option is opening a business with my wife
5) and I'm not a half/half guy
6) I'm 40, I have 5 kids, I can't afford to fail
7) if I open that other business, I am not going to f*&k that up
8) so it's bye bye gold regressions blah blah
9) do you know that before the greatest gold bull market of the 70s...
10) central banks had there BIGGEST SELLING YEAR OF GOLD EVER, TO THIS DAY??
11) on a scale that would DWARF the buying they did anytime in the last year and a half
12) why do I mention that?
13) that is to say that I am capable of seeing things both ways
14) I can forecast, but I can watch your back too
15) but seriously this is a 2-way street
16) I offer legit, world-class analysis, throughout the day, the week, etc...
17) but spread the word for me, that's the only thing I ask
18) the best way is to people you know (if they care of course, if they don't care well uh..)
19) tha's a wrap for SATURDAY 10/14

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k) section missing from notes a bit ago, this from 11/11/22 a year ago:

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k1) some how this part didn't post and I missed it
k2) so this is catching the bottom and forecasting the rebound and the check down UP TO NOW
k3) I said in notes that didn't post for some reason ..
k4) that this title was right OR wrong, but it was both RIGHT AND WRONG
k5) right that it was too slow up to MAY JUNE THIS YEAR....
k6) wrong that it was too fast from JUNE to now
k7) this tied into the central bank record buying of gold news..
k8) but that's OLD NEWS, that's how we got the run back up to 2080
k9) but that chart impressive as it was expires right now too
k10) impies a massive move up and the "resurrection of the gold bull market"
k11) but like I said in my request for your help

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k12) you can google central buying history...
k13) their greatest year of selling in the 1970s before the biggest gold bull market ever and maybe ever will be...
k14) if anything, it was a contrarian signal
k15) all that said was to show that I AM AWARE OF THE GOLD BULL, trust me about that...

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k16) correction to k13) "years" not single year
k17) if you google van eck central bank gold purchases
k18) you will see it by year
k19) central banks were selling this entire run here:

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k20) and this too:

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k21) what do we learn from that???
k22) we learn that:
i. when central banks spend years and years and years selling...
ii. and then turn to buying..
iii. that's a DECENT signal that GOLD IS ABOUT TO DOUBLE AND TOP W/IN 18 MONTHS
iv. that's it...

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v. if you include the years before 1971 going off gold standard for good:

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w. so that makes it 3 for 3..that if they sell for many years and turn buying...
x) gold makes massive top w/in 18 months

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>> so here's when they stopped buying in 1969:

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>> 43.5 back to 35

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>> here is when they stopped buying in 1981:

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>> what do I say about that??
>>that's called "caught holding the bag"

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>> but what about now??

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>> we DON'T KNOW bc they HAVE NOT STOPPED BUYING...
>> but we do know that ALL THE BUYING THEY'VE DONE ..
>> is old news... it's not NEW news...
>> all that to say what???
>> I am not convinced on "central bank buying" thesis...
>> I do know that if they stop buying... it's not going to be pretty

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>> when you google "Van Eck central banks gold purchases"
>> go to image search, you will see it by year

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>> had to switch from bars to lines for 1950s-1960s data
>> otherwise looks like this for those that care:

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10/14 2:49 PM ET... WRAP UP FOR CENTRAL BANK GOLD DEMAND.
a) so whatabout quarterly data???
b) we know they bough a ton end of 2022
c) and they kept up the buying January 2023, reduced buying in February
d) sold in March April May
e) bought hard again in June and July
f) July info came out in September
g) so August-September infor comes out in NEXT MONTH.....
h) BUT ALL OF THAT IS BACKWARD LOOKING REMEMBER THAT

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i) and remember that they sold from $65 all the way to $475

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l) yes it's TRUE that they sold from 420 to 250
m) but they ALSO SOLD FROM 250 TO 1075
n) sure all that nice to know
m) useful AF...
n) that's final RE-WRAP FOR SATURDAY 10/14

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o) hold on, there are two things worth mentioning about central bank buying....
p) the first is obvious.. what if after years and years of years of buying (since 2010) they turn to selling

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q) that's inverse so bear bear bear
r) BUT THERE'S ONE MORE ...
s) what if after years and years of of buying (since 2010)... they turn to BUYING MASSIVELY
t) well back to where we started 50/50

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5:56 PM ET... Central bank gold purchases:
1) this got left out some how earlier
2) first central bank gold purchases ARE more now...
3) but global gold production is 2X vs 1970
4) AND global financial assets are 25X

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5) said that wrong global GDP is 25x

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6) these are average numbers for 1970 and 2020
7) USD is 6.6x
8) but gold is 55x (1935/35)

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9) so considered as a % of global gold production but vs the size of global gdp (and indirectly that means financial assets)
10) the central bank sale of gold during the early to mid 70s AND mid 80s to 2010....
11) were way more massive than today
12) further more, all this de-dollarization talk are from countries whose currency have way more problems...

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13) in the sense that you can't add 5 negative numbers together and make a higher number than 0

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14) you can't count CB gold sales prior to 1971 bc it was vs gold backed dollar.

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15) if you want to play the "central bank gold purchases game", it's not worth playing
16) because there's so much WRONG that you have to ignore
17) and then form a theory w/o firm evidence? that's called speculation....
18) google speculation:
>> verb
>> 1. form a theory or conjecture about a subject without firm evidence.
19) if you want to play demographics game, fed M2, M3, it's not going to help...
20) ultimately you come around to price action.... bc price is fact
21) you know what the LEADING INDICATOR IS?
22) it's price
23) so this POST IS CONSIDERED ENDED.... I'm working on PREPWORK FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY....
24) why can I sometimes do months of forecasts right now can't do more than 30 hours out?
25) bc THIS PART IS HARD AF... that's all

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26) one note about demographics...
27) I conducted a pretty decent examination of u.s. demographics vs gold prices...
28 ) the last good run for gold should have been 2020-2023... but COVID DID NOT DELAY 40-year olds from opening businesses.. (generating demand therefore inflation)
29) it pullled it FORWARD to 2020... considering that curve...
30) we should get SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION FOR 2020-2023 as a top before tanking
31) ...and we got a tripple top.. it fits in a scary way....
32) and don't talk to me about the Yen w/ simililar demographics curves sometime in the last 2 decades...
33) looked at that too... and the yen crushed other currencies during that time...
34) and yes... I know STILL LOST TO GOLD DURING THAT time
35) but the yen is a second rate currency
36) U.S. is nowhere near that hole...
37) I don't see it... I don't see the case for a gold bull market
38) but having said that, trust me when I say I know what it should look like SHOULD IT PLAY OUT ANYWAY...
39) bc price is FACT

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9:40 PM NEW BASE CASE FOR SUN MON: DRIFT TO 1960
1) what happened to rugpull?
2) news flow keeps up the middle east tensions
3) too much going on
4) until Israel makes the move, and they not canceling this...
5) it's gotta keep going
6) so?
7) base case is Sunday night 1920 check down
8) 1960 Monday
9) this part fits intermediate curves
10) and most importantly, news flow
11) may change yet again in 21 hours...

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12) it's my read of news headlines...
13) this part is subjective, but that's ok.OK..
14) I have plan B C D etc...

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15) some of this requires understanding of mid east politics
16) the Saudis response indicates that MBS does have absolute power in Saudi Arabia
17) and this genuine stress on oil markets will extend generally to the commodities complex
18) it remains to be seen if this thing has a specific ceiling for escalation
19) in that sense we have to respect at least the possibility of
20) resurrection of gold bull thesis

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21. as to why MBS does not have absolute power as was assumed globally for sometime...
22. MBS is part of the younger faction of royals that support peaceful relations with lsrael, as a counter balance to Persian Iran's growing influence
23. he was ready to sell out support of Palestinians and recognition of Israel for security pact with Biden administration
24. but the lust of empire and historical pride runs deep in Persian blood ... and Tehran no doubt had a hand in Hezbolla's support of Hamas
25. so?
26. Khamenei pushed the right buttons to squash this Saudi-Israel deal

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27. Typo on 16.... MBS does NOT have absolute...

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28. Contrary to popular belief, the U.S. has been withdrawing its Mideast presence f9r quite sometime.
29. It is my understanding, that despite sending 2 carrier battle groups, the U.S. does not intend to get involved in this situation
30. Why?
31. Because the need of the Saudi-Israel deal, was caused by drawdown of American military presence in the first place.

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32. We will see, after retrieving American nationals from Hamas, what else Biden's administration wants, that is beyond the political show of support for Israel.

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33. It has been American policy to allow Iran and to a degree Turkiye to strengthen for sometime while drawing slowly down security support for Israel and the Saudis. This has been the first chapter of the new American isolanist policy that has replaced the previous neoconservative powers that were behind Project for a New American Century that has are now has beens since the 2008 GFC.

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34. Isolationist? What about Ukraine and those 100s of billions spent.
35. Have you seen the way the Pentagon do accounting?
36. How do you know the Russians didn't trade their sales of natural gas for a few Ukrainian provinces and control of coastlines and seaports.
37. And it just happens that ALL THE HUGE OIL AND GAS DISCOVERED IN UKRAINE?
38. Now 100% in Russian hands.
39. The U.S. gained the entire European energy market, kept the EU as vassals, and all it costs were a billions of $ of 1970s and 1980s defunct weapons. And some newer ones that have been defanged as to not enrage Moscow.

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40. If you ask me, the only losers in Ukraine... is the Ukrainians.

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THIS POST HAS ENDED - HERE IS NEXT ONE:

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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