3075 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 6H: BUT HOW DO YOU BREAK 2520?
Just buy and hold, except reposition at 2450 if you are up and looking
1) I can't figure this one out
2) what happens after retrace from 2520 to 2450
3) what then?
4) no idea, just exit 2510 and wait a week or 10 days
5) should be obvious then
1) I can't figure this one out
2) what happens after retrace from 2520 to 2450
3) what then?
4) no idea, just exit 2510 and wait a week or 10 days
5) should be obvious then
Nota
6) so it's hold to 2500, 2510 7) you can reposition at 2450 if you are paying attention
8) the dashed line with blue question marks is where, or more precisely WHEN
9) we should have top, and it would've kept every thing in sync and smooth
10) after 2520 now Is a blank page for me...
11) which is good, actually bc in any other situation, would be rollover bear
12) still could be, but prove it!
13) other wise 2450 comes late Wed or early Thursday
14) 2520 comes next Wed 7/17
Nota
15) it literally hurts my head thinking about the move yesterday and what it means16) in the bigger picture
17) once we get to 2520, we talk about this again
Nota
8:29, GOING HAVE TO MOVE SOON, TOO MUCH STALLING.Nota
8:45, hours from reaching no resistance for this setup1) which is the point price should move really really strong
2) there's no more technical requirements for any reasons
3) the only thing price can be waiting for is Powell's Senate appearance
4) but this setup has nothing stopping it
5) any short term technical damage caused by move to 2350 has been resolved
6) so at 8:50 AM ET and 2358.5, there has to be movement now
7) so we'ere 70 minutes from Powell, this setup deserves 2 hours
Nota
8) that means when there's no resistance and price is still stalling...9) this happens like once every couple of years that's how rare it is
10) so this setup needs to move and move strong
Nota
11) if price doesn't move and continues to stall in an other wise perfect bullish setup up12) it is going to miss the window to complete its setup
13) and WILL MAKE A MOVE ANYWAY LATER, but because trends are out of sync
14) it becomes a GIANT FAKE OUT
15) for example move to 2430 THEN EARLY ROLLOVER
16) so a late move, let's say 12 hours later, super strong to 2430 Wed night
17) THEN STALLS, is - counter intuitively - THE MOST BEARISH OUTCOME
18) because that specific picture, or move, or route, or setup, would lead in
19) to a 300 point move down
Nota
7/9, 9:18 AM ET, 2363.XX and range of out comes from here1) overall there's two major outcomes
2) a move to 2520 and beyond
3) but the structure is WOULD NOT BE WHAT I HAD IT GOING IN
4) because I had it 2520, 2750, 2540, 3075 by Halloween
5) the extra check down at 2350 yesterday MEANS AN EXTRA RALLY
6) for example: 2520, 2750, stall, HIGHER, then correction
7) this immediately pushes that correction a month later
8) so any move beyond 3000 would get pushed to December or later
9) bc it's not just 1 extra month (trend maps change, i would be at least 2)
10) but - in theory - you should a a moderately higher high than 2750
11) but very unlikely to break 2860
12) this is now base case, but I don't love it because I don't know what to do with it
13) and I mean structure-wise, beyond 2520, technically EVEN EARLIER
14) bc the rally top counts would change, for ex:
15) 2480, 2600, 2720, 2840, I don't know until we hit FIRST HIGH after 2450
Nota
16) that's what I meant about the 2392-2350 check down17) it has introduced an extra layer to everything
Nota
18) that is base case and outright favorite for the entire data set19) what is the binary outcome?
20) I don't have one that I can justify all around so I am stating what the technical meaning of this would be
21) if you reach the point of no resistance and you cannot rally, it's over
22) because there is no resistance, meaning a lack of selling to pressure price down
23) and you have then entire setup since gold was $45
24) and you cannot move up strong
25) the obvious conclusion is it's all over
26) and you would know in a month's time
27) bc the price would do some giant fake out
28) and build a classic bear setup
29) but I hate that conclusion bc U.S. fiscal challenges ARE NOT GOING AWAY
30) bc any empire's FIRST GO TO STRATEGY when it gets into this situation
31) is slow currency devaluation
32) EVERY EMPIRE IN HISTORY HAS DONE THIS W/O EXCEPTION
33) none ever escaped its spiral once started
34) so that cannot be the binary outcome
35) even though it's the technical outcome
36) the fundamentals ELIMINATE THAT OUTCOME
Nota
9:57 PM 2368.XX, so name a replacement binary outcome: 37) ok so if the fundamentals are sound
38) bc if Trump wins, HE IS A DEBT GUY, MAYBE "THE" DEBT GUY, he is a realtor by trade
39) Biden is going down, I don't know what/who his replacement will be
40) so I can not do "analysis" on a scenario that is a question mark
41) the only remaining outcome ON PAPER is price is still "building a setup'
42) and this setup would move directly to 3075 AFTER 2800s
43) without a correction to 2500s
44) tha's what that means
Nota
45) 10:03 AM, 2356.XX after 237146) this is not working
Nota
47) YOU HAVE TO BE DEFENSIVE HERE bc I can not answer for what is going on right now48) the techs say breakout, but at 10:07 AM, the evidence says strong selling at 2371
49) that's what just happened
50) so be defensive here
51) this setup MUST GO TODAY or my experience says we have to wrap it up
Nota
52) 10:15 if bulls take this setup, the answer to the rug pull at 2371.xx53) is spike to 2397, is there anything setup wise stopping it?
54) NO, and I hate that that is still stuck at 63.xx as I type
Nota
55) 10:32 AM ET AND 2363.XX, I love this setup, but it's not moving.1) gotta stick with it until tonight at least
2) because the math says I need to give it a chance
3) BUT I ALREADY GIVEN this rally 3 chances....
4) so this is its last chance
5) because if it's not shooting up here...
6) I have no idea what it's supposed to do with a literal "shoot up from here" setup
Nota
Nota
10:57 AM 2354.XX be smart here, let price guide youa) if long put in a stop and watch for a move up
b) if not long, then wait wand watch for a move
c) you don't have to be in until the move MOVES
d) and if you are short here? trail your stops or you might lose in one quick move
Nota
e) levered up at 54 just in case I am rightNota
11:17 AM, 2351.XX just ugly and uglier1) bears supper close to destroying everything
2) what they would need is a move to 2340 AND HOLD
3) otherwise, if 50-51+ this setup is still live and alive until the trends shift
4) the setup calls for 2397
Nota
11:43 AM ET, 2357.39, still nothing1) listening to Powell
2) most of these questions are just a waste of time
3) when does this wrap up?
Nota
Nota
7/9 12:54 PM ET, 2359.XX so I have a 40 pt pike setup (2400)a) where the only thing missing
b) is the 40 pt spike
Nota
c) a 40 pt spike setup, "doesn't just SHOW UP all the time"d) and also has a time limit in which to finish by
e) so it's almost 1 PM, this thing must get at least 30 of the 40 by 9 or maybe 10 PM f) so let's say 12 hours for the whole 40 to 2399
Nota
f) so it's 12:31 PM AND 61.XX, NY CLOSES AT 4:00, aftermarket at 5:00g) how much can bulls do?
h) let's see bulls high 75-77 first,
i) a move up here would lead to one correction zig zag
j) that will kill an hour by itself
l) so if bulls close NY 79-80, that's pretty good
m) but in aftermarket, bulls should close higher like 85-ish
n) the route is wide open
o) but miss and there's going to be giant questions
Nota
3:13 PM 2365.58 and RUNNING OUT OF ROOM TO STALL, BUT 2 MORE HOURS1) we have already reached the the point of no resistance on long/medium/short terms
2) we are about to do that on the micro for 1-min bar
3) aftermarkets close at 5PM, reopen is 6PM
4) and that marker is about 7:30
5) but the only acceptable route at that time is STRAIGHT LINE UP (NO ZIG ZAG)
6) there are times when people use the word perfect and use it wrong
7) I have a setup reaching perfect down to 1 min bar at 7:30 PM
8) but I hate that IT EVEN NEEDS TO GET TO THAT POINT
9) but reality DOES NOT WAIT FOR MATHEMATICAL PRECISION
10) it is almost a contrarian signal, bc YOU DON'T NEED PERFECT to move up 45 points
11) so that's where we are
12) reaching mathematical perfect setup down to 1 -min bar
13) but at the same time with emotional doubt that it follows through
14) why?
15) because from an overall trend setup point of view, price should have CLOSED 2400 ON FRIDAY
Nota
16) personally, I've only witnessed this situation one other time 17) June or July 2019, let me see
Nota
18) MAY 30 TH 2019, where it was stacked to the micro and the result was blast offNota
19) the move has been so slow last 2 hours that it has "resolved the zig zag" ahead of time20) from here to midnight, we are are going to see something really interesting
21) that being a "1 line move to 2392, maybe even 2403"
22) we will get to 2403 either way, but calling a "1 line move to 2403 IS DIFFERENT"
23 that means 40 pt from here 2363.12 without zigzag
24) only the move the first 30 can be said confidently to be "1 line"
25) if we don't, maybe this method sucks major league, we will see
Nota
26) timing is everything 27) so what do we need to see and when
28) it is 2364.17 at 3:52 pm
29) all we need from my trend engine's perspective
30) for escape and explosive momentum
31) is 2368, ONLY FOUR POINTS
32) because EVERY SINGLE TREND TWIST HAS BEEN RESOLVED
33) we need 2368 BUT EARLY AND HOLD 2368 TO 7 PM
Nota
34) I don't like to trash talk early, but the few times I do that35) would be a situation like this
36) let's refrain from that this time to not jinx the outcome
Nota
4:01 PM ET, 2353.95 NY JUST CLOSED AND WHAT I AM WATCHING IS1) the time slot between 4:45-and 5:00
2) THIS IS WHERE INSTITUTIONS have made their presence known
3) the last 15 minutes of NY aftermarket
4) so obviously I want to see a move above 2368 in that time
Nota
4:05 NO SLEEP UNTIL 2450- PASS ON 25205) I promised I would stay up until I walk you to 2450
6) didn't sleep last night
7) not sleeping tonight
8) and it looks like won't sleep wed night bc 2450 looks like Thursday morning now
9) had said I would make it to Friday too if I have a setup that gets us to 2500s
10) THAT I STILL PROMISE
11) but I just don't see how we do 2500s this week
12) it's not impossible, just silly to to expect that
Nota
13) play chart at top 14 ) as of right now, I FULLY EXPECT THIS TO HIT the hi-light curve's pattern
15) WITH SOME DELAY, so price would run parallel or close to that pattern
Nota
Ordinary-Human, I am talking about resistance that you can visibly see from trend waves or math formulas1) so yes, you may very well be right
2) we still definitely know to tonight if my formulas a worth a damn
3) bc they are screaming they will absolutely crush the bears
4) math doesn't lie right?
5) well let's find out
Nota
4:44, 2364.xx let's find out what the big money wants to do 1) here in the next 16 minutes
2) we need them to make it 68+
Nota
4:57, started the slot at 64.40, made 64.70 high now trading 63.80 1
Nota
1) big money wants none of it2) that's a bad sign
Nota
5:20 PM ET: let me tell you what I know, what I consider obvious: 1) gold is in a rally
2) and it maybe not be finished setting up
3) which means an even longer and extended rally
4) so we have a perfect trend setup and I don't think it's going to break out
5) which in my view CAN ONLY MEAN price still setting up
6) so what's the worst case scenario:
Nota
Nota
10) continuing in chart above, I have a perfect setup 11) and I don't think it's going to move
12) because once the time limit expires, it just goes sideways
13) this I know
14) the issue is this: that red line in chart at top IS JULY FOMC
15) if price is setting up for a SUPER RALLY in both SIZE AND SCOPE..
16) or price and time
17) it's totally reasonable that it would do this:
Nota
Nota
18) continuing with chart above19) my move to 2450-2520 is still under the "2750 high context"
20) I KNOW NOW THAT IS VERY LIKELY TO BE TOO LOW
21) put everything I just said
22) under "analysis facts" category
Nota
23) so what's next? 24) I can see the price not taking this move up
25 ) which ONLY MEANS ONE THING
26) it will go sideways to fight that bold black line
27) and when that breaks, first move is 2450
28) but MY CONTEXT OF 2750 HIGH IS WRONG, so the WHEN I HAVE FOR 2450-2520
29) is not right
30) but if you think this is going down like a "big bear scenario"
31) just stop , you don't know what you are doing
Nota
32) so MY CURRENT MAP AT 2450 for this week 33) this is based on my 2750 high for August plan
34) so if 2750 high is wrong
35) 2450 DOES NOT HAVE TO COME THIS WEEK
36) but chart above where the blue route breaks up to 2450
37) AFTER JULY FOMC
38) is ALSO UNLIKELY
39) so what will happen is this:
Nota
Nota
12) therefore it's not going to be "3075 by 10/3113) it's going to be 2800s by 9/30
14) so the last couple of days I've given this mapping process a lot of thought
15) to address the "unknown rally problem"
Nota
16) because the error each time is "assuming I have the right rally" 17) so I am thinking about this right now
Nota
18) ANOTHER WRENCH IN THIS PROBLEM ?19) having said all of that
20) average trend readings call for 2550 before 7/23 AHEAD OF FOMC
21) so the "assumption that 2450 is pre-FOMC TOP"
22) IS ALSO WRONG
Nota
TO SUMMARIZE:1) 2450 IS NEXT, but my schedule is wrong
2) 2550 SHOULD COME AHEAD OF FOMC on 7/31
3) rally high should be in 2850-ISH by 8/30 (not 9/30 EARLIER) TYPO
Nota
4) my schedule for 2450 maybe wrong5) BUT IT'S NOT OBVIOUS HOW MUCH I AM OFF BY
6) whatever it is, I AM NOT OFF BY A LOT
7) I am damn sure of that
8) I have it for Thursday on this chart at top
9) this has not been eliminated
10) there's 2 ways to make it on Thursday
11) but trying to get the top date right is too difficult and misleading at best
12) we have to approach from what we know
13) what we know is 2450 is next very very very likely by next Friday
14) BUT CAN FALL AS EARLY AS THIS THURSDAY
Nota
15) if you fight me on this, you're gonna die bears16) you're GOING TO DIE, so just stop now before you lose all your money
Nota
6:25 PM ET, SO WITH THE CONTEXT THAT WE ARE GOING TO 24501) and also 2550 should come before FOMC
2) those two things are facts to me
3) they are WHEN NOT IF
4) I am not going to "chart the move until I know exactly what it looks like"
5) because it's not helpful
6) just be aware that if you're shorting here, the absolute floor is 2350 and
7) IT'S NOT OBVIOUS WHY IT SHOULD HIT AGAIN
Nota
8) what is obvious is that 2450 should fall from THIS THURSDAY....9) to next WEDNESDAY
10) that much is I can say "I know AND NOT HAVE TO CHANGE THE SCHEDULE"
Nota
11) the last time I said I can see it going to 2350 but I don't know how12) this idiot made fun of it because he's so dense he can't understand what I said
13) and sure enough it happened and now he's back all big and bad
14) and I am about to destroy him again!
15) so let me say this I KNOW WE ARE GOING TO 2450 NEXT
16) I don't know exactly when
17) but it should be THIS THURSDAY TO NEXT WEDNESDAY
18) and closer to front end, meaning Friday should be more likely than next Tuesday
Nota
19) but I don't want to put a hi-light route on it20) because I do not understand what the outlines of the total rally is
21) so if I try to nail it, I am going to get the dates wrong
22) and all these "big bad bears" and their damn experts going gonna come here
23) running their mouth just as I am about to lay waste to their entire digital lives
24) and that's a bad look, bc I am not a bully
25) but whatever, I digress
Nota
Nota
1) in chart above... do you understand how hard it is to nail a move with a hi-lihght?2) I'm not sure anybody understand how difficult it is
3) until they try to do it
4) but IF WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MAKE THIS PROJECT REAL
5) let's stop trying to be perfect (you really cannot, bc there's too many unknowns"
6) and just get it right
7) in that sense:
a) we are going up
b) see all these bears showing up an running their mouth
c) watch, they might run their mouth ONE MORE DAY IF THEY ARE LUCKY
d) and they will be DEAD SILENT REST OF THE WAY
e) this is what I mean by "I know we going to 2450 next"
f) but I just don't know "exactly how" as in what the exact zig zag should be
g) but I can give you the LATE LIMITS
Nota
8) in this case, the stop would be 47, THE TP WOULD BE 24459) should you buy at 65?
10) well you should've bought at 54
11) now what you're really asking is: what is the exact zig zag pattern
12) so you can know if if it's worth it to buy 2365
13) if you are patient 2450 will arrive by NEXT WED 6PM
14) if you are lucky, this Thursday morning
Nota
Nota
1) POWELL DOES HOUSE SPEECH TOMORROW SAME TIME2) so odds of another move lower?
3) NO IDEA
4) but if you see 55 or lower BUY WITH BOTH HANDS
Nota
5) 8:20 PM ET, 30 SEC bars say next move is 23716) which makes floor 2359
7) meaning odds of a low under 2359 before a another move up is very low
Nota
9:13 PM ET 8) 30 sec bars too wishy-washy
9) I have a great idea, just wait
Nota
7/9, 9:33 PM, I CAN'T BELIEVE I HAVEN'T DONE THIS SOONER: 
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