GOLD's Final Trap (Re-done) | Round 2 LOL

(tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/Bo8W9xcj-The-Final-Trap-for-GOLD/)
This is a general image of the old analysis - and here is the link to it directly

Alright guys so as I would have mentioned in the GOLD Minds forum I wish to re-do the analysis that I did a few days ago because truth be told I was wrong about what I thought it would do. I am not ashamed of this because 1. I didn't force any trade and 2. I am aware that I cannot get every single trade right unlike some traders on here

So this new analysis is to serve as me rethinking about what can happen

So let us begin

Firstly I wish to clear my charts so I can have a fresh perspective on everything - my reasoning for this is that I could have a cognitive bias which would have been created from the analysis prior, by removing everything I thought I saw I not have no choice but to dig deeper and figure out what went wrong. This is important for me because my style of trading actually forces me to have a different angle of attack for each different trade set up. I'd typically have a few things generally in which I look for but I am of the understanding that NO 2 trades will ever be exactly alike.

So on to the next part


So as I am sure we agree on gold has historically been a bullish market and I don't think that has changed in recent times - we have confirmation of this on the monthly timeframe

I want to draw your attention however to when you zoom in to the present price action on the monthly time frame

As you can see if you look at the previous monthly candle, it is the only candle in which closed different that all the rest at the high, all of the other candles severely rejected the high whereas this previous monthly candle (black candle) seemingly randomly closed extremely bullish. Now what I think is important here is paying attention to how the current monthly candle is behaving (wicks to both sides) I am already thinking that traders are seeing this as rejection to the top (AT THE HIGH OF THE GOLD MARKET) and some traders would be seeing rejection to the downside. What this candle tells me in its entirety is that gold is absolutely consolidating right now

And we have confirmation of that btw.


On the weekly timeframe we have what seems like a bull trend that had been created all the way back from October and this is a good thing because if the dealer is inducing buyers to buy it means (to me) that the dealer wants the market to buy but he has to get traders to get in early so he can take them out of their positions before moving

The concept of induction is interesting and I want to briefly cover it. Induction can also be known as seduction. Have you ever been seduced? if you have you feel as though you were compelled to do something beyond what you'd normally do simply so that you can achieve some level of pleasure. It is only after the fact you stop and think "what the hell have I done". Yeah, you've been seduced.

Induction works the same way, have you ever entered a buy at (what you think is a really really good area)? Only for the market to stop you out and then proceed to buy not long after the fact? Congratulations, you've just fallen victim to induction\seduction. This black candle that seemingly breaks the trendline in a heart beat only to fall back in line could be reminiscent of that, but we don't know for sure - let's keep digging


Admittedly the both the trendline and what "looks" like the stop hunt on this time frame are very ugly, but I can't shake the feeling that there is something more going on here

Wait hold on....

Holy moly, what if, no that can't be....🤔
What if that move is simply to stop out traders who were interested in the breakout above the high who had stops just below the high

I'm drawing at straws here because I am trying to understand why would the dealer drive price back down to perform this move, then to continue the buy? it has to be because of break out buyers right?


And on the 4h timeframe we have the sellers being trapped in the bear trend only to be destroyed by what I thought was the W pattern signaling the reversal - Link to that analysis is here -

So we have buyers induced to buy, on the higher timeframes, sellers induced to sell and already been taken out - Now it is just to take out the last set of late buyers right?

It's almost too perfect

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Break, I had to leave my office to head into the town to deal with an emergency quickly, just got back home..so we continue
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Seems like we still have a lot of confirmation of buyers being induced - even the meter in tradingview suggests that the market sentiment of gold is buy. But let us take a look at what is going on on the 1H. Over to the left we have the previous "BOS - or what traders like to call a break of structure" it is really garbage because you can't use that information by itself to build out a trade but say what..as I always say the money has to come from somewhere right? Ignorance is bliss as they say. Then slightly over to the right we have the big spike up and traders being heavily induced to buy because they would have FOMO'd. And lastly further to the right we have all the buyers buying this new trendline even as I am typing this a buyer induction is occurring on the present part of the trendline. Interesting.


This is what I think price is likely to do, I highly doubt I'd trade for the rest of the year but again if I were the dealer this is what I'd do...aim to take out every single trader who thought it was going to really buy and then actually buy

AND then Close the market for Christmas before anyone even understands what happened - it's the most evilest thing ever lol

Anyway this analysis is very long winded and I know most of you probably won't even get this far in reading - if you did tell me what you are getting yourself for Christmas, that will be our little inside joke in the comments. Keep them guessing

Don't boost if you didn't read this entire post and didn't attempt to understand
OR
Boost if you did read this entire post and did attempt to understand

Godspeed to all of you guys :)