Oro / DollaroShort
12.24.2024 GOLD Logic Analysis + Opportunity Analysis
Hello traders,
Everyone must be clear that there are multiple factors causing tight liquidity at the end of 2024
1. Special Timing Factors
- US markets traditionally have lower liquidity during Christmas to New Year period
- Financial institutions' year-end settlements and balance sheet adjustments
- Traders' holiday breaks naturally lead to decreased trading volume
2. US Government's Debt Issuance Pressure
- Scale: Treasury auctions exceeding $70 billion
- Timing: During the lowest liquidity period
- Distribution of Types:
- 2-year Treasury bonds
- 5-year Treasury bonds
- 7-year Treasury bonds
- Impact: Will further drain dollar liquidity from the market
3. Federal Reserve's Response Measures
Fed's current Standing Repo Facility (SRF) (temporary liquidity operations) characteristics:
- Time window: 12/30/2024 - 1/3/2025
- Scale: $500 billion daily
- Nature: Temporary liquidity support
- Operation method: Overnight repo
Interpretation of Fed's SRF policy implications:
- Only covers the most critical days around year-end
- Shows Fed's vigilance against market volatility
4. Risk Warnings: Liquidity Risk + Thin Holiday Trading
- Market volatility may increase
- Asset prices may fluctuate
- Trading costs may rise
- Year-end cross-year trading requires caution
[Gold]
Last week's group reminder: Gold short-selling plan, short targets were:
TP1: 2648 achieved, manage positions and trailing stops
TP2: 2618 first target for new positions, consider entry timing on Thursday after Fed meeting
TP3: 2575 not yet reached
Friday's group reminder: Not advisable to enter new positions, continue managing stops and position sizes for existing short positions.
This week, due to Christmas holidays, liquidity is low, not recommended to open new positions.
Continue managing stops and positions for last week's short positions, ultimate profit target remains at 2575, but if stop losses are triggered unexpectedly, exit and observe, waiting for the next opportunity.
Technically, on the 4-hour chart, gold's retracement has reached the first structural position (STRUCTURE 1) at FIBO 382 level in the 2930-2940 area. Watch the resistance force when price reaches this position, observe for new 1-hour reversal signals for potential continued downward movement in gold.
GOOD LUCK!
Merry Xmas!
LESS IS MORE!
Everyone must be clear that there are multiple factors causing tight liquidity at the end of 2024
1. Special Timing Factors
- US markets traditionally have lower liquidity during Christmas to New Year period
- Financial institutions' year-end settlements and balance sheet adjustments
- Traders' holiday breaks naturally lead to decreased trading volume
2. US Government's Debt Issuance Pressure
- Scale: Treasury auctions exceeding $70 billion
- Timing: During the lowest liquidity period
- Distribution of Types:
- 2-year Treasury bonds
- 5-year Treasury bonds
- 7-year Treasury bonds
- Impact: Will further drain dollar liquidity from the market
3. Federal Reserve's Response Measures
Fed's current Standing Repo Facility (SRF) (temporary liquidity operations) characteristics:
- Time window: 12/30/2024 - 1/3/2025
- Scale: $500 billion daily
- Nature: Temporary liquidity support
- Operation method: Overnight repo
Interpretation of Fed's SRF policy implications:
- Only covers the most critical days around year-end
- Shows Fed's vigilance against market volatility
4. Risk Warnings: Liquidity Risk + Thin Holiday Trading
- Market volatility may increase
- Asset prices may fluctuate
- Trading costs may rise
- Year-end cross-year trading requires caution
[Gold]
Last week's group reminder: Gold short-selling plan, short targets were:
TP1: 2648 achieved, manage positions and trailing stops
TP2: 2618 first target for new positions, consider entry timing on Thursday after Fed meeting
TP3: 2575 not yet reached
Friday's group reminder: Not advisable to enter new positions, continue managing stops and position sizes for existing short positions.
This week, due to Christmas holidays, liquidity is low, not recommended to open new positions.
Continue managing stops and positions for last week's short positions, ultimate profit target remains at 2575, but if stop losses are triggered unexpectedly, exit and observe, waiting for the next opportunity.
Technically, on the 4-hour chart, gold's retracement has reached the first structural position (STRUCTURE 1) at FIBO 382 level in the 2930-2940 area. Watch the resistance force when price reaches this position, observe for new 1-hour reversal signals for potential continued downward movement in gold.
GOOD LUCK!
Merry Xmas!
LESS IS MORE!
Nota
GOLD is retesting resistance zone after Xmas holiday.
Wait for more signals round this zone.
Course and daily analysis sent via email, to sub via web:
signalsofswingtrading.com
Wechat: ziyuvera
Tele: t.me/VeraFuntrader
signalsofswingtrading.com
Wechat: ziyuvera
Tele: t.me/VeraFuntrader
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