Oro / DollaroLong
RIGHT NOW #145, WHY DO YOU NEED CONTINUOUS UPDATES?
I lead this post with the notice that the only strong part of this forecast is the dashed line. This is the averages of all trends combined for the next 80 hours of trading or basically to end of Monday 9/30. Everything starting starting Tuesday needs "re-averaging".
The hi-lights here is current "favorite route vs field". This label is not worth its definition because of high short term 2-way vol that exist for the next 56 hours, or to end of Sunday 9/29. this means that as long as price respects the average that is the dashed line, it doesn't matter which set of zigzag it it takes to go the distance. For example, the mirror image of the hi-lights over this over this curve would work just fine overall. Hence the problem with short term forecasting in this situation. The forecasting would need continuous updates to remain relevant for traders that trade daily. There in lies the problem.
This problem is the same basic problem long term as it is short term. Hence, this is why if you do not update continuously respective to your trade window, your forecast is essentially worthless.
The hi-lights here is current "favorite route vs field". This label is not worth its definition because of high short term 2-way vol that exist for the next 56 hours, or to end of Sunday 9/29. this means that as long as price respects the average that is the dashed line, it doesn't matter which set of zigzag it it takes to go the distance. For example, the mirror image of the hi-lights over this over this curve would work just fine overall. Hence the problem with short term forecasting in this situation. The forecasting would need continuous updates to remain relevant for traders that trade daily. There in lies the problem.
This problem is the same basic problem long term as it is short term. Hence, this is why if you do not update continuously respective to your trade window, your forecast is essentially worthless.
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4:52 PM -- That's the answer for the "intermediate problem" and you can consider the problem of forecasting price completely solved.
1) How so?
2) If you've followed my around the clock forecasting, you understand that...
3) I've essentially solved for short term forecasting.
4) And if you go this post and click play twice (bc it's so old):
5) In chart above, I've solved for long term forecasting.
6) The most difficult part is the holy grail to "intermediate 30-100 day forecasts".
7) But it's the same problem, the difference is scale and "refresh rate".
8) Why?
9) At the end of the day, price action is one giant zig zag.
10) When you replayed the post above, it was the same problem as chart at top.
11) You can "nail the average rate" but that's all you can be expected to do.
12) In order to get it all right, you have to be incredibly lucky.
13) I've only hit intermediate forecasts perfectly (all the zigzags) twice in 4 years.
14) The only true answer is TO UPDATE CONTINUOUSLY.
15) If you automate the entire process, all you need a refresh rate about 6 times a day.
16) And that's pretty much the entirety of trend forecasting.
17) Accuracy is a function of how much RAM is available.
18) The other part to this equation is speed of execution, or basically front running.
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5:06 PM, This I wrote in the last post. It will be more relevant at the end of 9/30 when you can replay chart at top:
09/25/2024 -- You know what I never understood?
1. If you have "traded" for sometime and have enough experience.
2. You know TradingView is the best for everything you'd ever want.
3. With few exceptions in which it's apparent they'll soon dominate.
4. But what I don't get it is this:
>>>a) I know my material is imperfect
>>>b) but when it comes to pure trend forecasting
>>>c) I do pretty damn well vs the entire field
>>>d) especially when I do it around the clock
>>>e) but how many people do you know do that type of thing?
>>>f) I don't know any one else who do
>>>g) and I don't know how you do what you do
>>>h) but you have to admit I see some things you don't see
>>>i) and I see it early (yes, sometimes too early)
>>>h) but WITHOUT A DOUBT I deliver on a regular basis
5. I have always thought that you would want to offer something like this.
6. At least TradingView should corner the market with this for cheap.
7. I know of no one else that can even claim they do this type of thing.
8. But they never seemed interested and in fact seem to be hostile to it.
9. Why though, really why? I don't get why they would be hostile to this.
10. Even people who hate me and disagree with me at least respect me.
11. If only bc they understand I do the part that they do not do well.
12. Does it not make sense to you that what I do belong on a place like this?
13. In the beginning, I thought for sure they would want to offer this.
14. TradingView is "the one stop shop" for everything trading related.
15. Yet, I am still under this shadow ban bc I was trying to get the word out.
16. To convince the world that "technical analysis" could be improved.
17. Have I not proven that? I think it is fair to say I have several times.
18. For the people that agreed an asked me to continue...
19. I really tried to get the word out, build demand, make it sustainable.
20. Twenty people asked me last week pay for the continuous analysis.
21. I can not continue on this model because the demand is not sustainable.
22. I had cut costs 70% but it still was not enough for the average person.
23. When the subsidies ran out, I can not afford to keep going.
24. So I want you to understand I simply ran out of options to continue.
25. I tried everything I could but cannot cross the finish line with this idea.
26. In my very humbled opinion, it just was not meant to be.
27. And I do not have the resources to "bring this product to market".
28. So thank you all for your support, but this is the end.
29. Have a good one and thank you for reading my material.
30. I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.
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AND PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THIS POST WILL NOT BE UPDATED.
END OF POST.
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AND FINAL CAUTION:
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9:00 PM, THE MAIN THING IS 2850 BY 10/08
a) that doesn't change, besides that...
b) whole route needs to be redrafted
c) so chart at top NOT USEFUL AT ALL
d) end of post, will add one more if I have time
e) but I am out of time
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11:22 PM ET: WATCH THIS PURPLE LINE FOR A SHOT AT 2710 THURSDAY MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY:
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1) in chart above, I just don't want to write up another post
2) but basically MEDIUM TERM FAIR VALUE IS 2710 THURSDAY MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
3) so price is 50 under that fair value
4) even though the averages show a much weaker curve
5) my call is blue route in chart above
6) simply bc in rally mode when price is this much behind medium term fair value
7) it should take the first setup
8) chart at top has 2695+ for same time frame but a much more complicated route
9) all I'm saying is this line may hold and simplify the move:
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10) so remember this line in chart above, you'll need it for next post:
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