XAUUSD Weekly Recap & Forecast (Week Ending April 11, 2025)

My Weekly Recap (Apr 7 – Apr 11, 2025)

This week was explosive for gold. I watched XAUUSD surge past key levels and close out one of the strongest bullish weeks I’ve seen recently. We cleared the $3,200 level with authority and tapped into a new all-time high around $3,245 before closing the week near $3,235. Daily candles were huge – $40–$50 swings weren’t unusual.

The main catalyst was the ongoing U.S.-China tariff escalation. I saw risk sentiment shift heavily, and the market turned defensive, pouring into gold. On top of that, inflation data came in soft mid-week, which added fuel to the rally. The dollar fell hard, giving gold even more room to run.

I marked major zones throughout the week: $3,150–$3,200 flipped from resistance to strong support, and $3,245 is now my key short-term resistance to watch.

My Outlook for Apr 14 – 18, 2025

I’m approaching next week with a bullish bias, but with some caution. The uptrend is intact, but gold has moved fast and may need to cool off a bit. I’ll be watching the $3,200 level closely. If we hold above it early in the week, I’ll look for long entries targeting $3,280, $3,300, and possibly $3,320 if momentum stays hot.

If we get a pullback, I’m planning to look for buys between $3,180–$3,150. That zone acted as a breakout base and should attract buyers. If we lose $3,150, I’ll reevaluate – deeper support lies around $3,100 and $3,000.

Here’s how I’ll mark my chart:
- **Support Zones:**
- $3,150–$3,200 (green box)
- $3,100 (minor support)
- $3,000 (major psychological support)
- **Resistance Levels:**
XAUUSD - $3,245 (current high – red line)
- $3,280 (extension target)
- $3,300–$3,320 (next psychological/fib zone)
- **Trendline:**
- I’m drawing a rising trendline from the March lows through early April higher lows – it’s still valid and supporting the move

My strategy is to buy dips as long as we stay above $3,150. If price breaks above $3,245 with strong momentum, I’ll look for breakout entries too. I’ll keep stop-losses tight given the speed of the move, and I might trail stops aggressively if we test $3,300. If momentum fades and we fall below $3,100, I’ll wait for signs of reversal before jumping back in.

It’s a shortened trading week due to Good Friday, so I’m also preparing for potential volatility in thinner conditions. I’ll be selective and keep my risk managed. Overall, I’m still bullish – gold looks like it has more room to run if the macro drivers don’t change. Let’s see what next week brings!