#5 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD su FX_IDC:XAUUSD di Binary_Forecasting_Service

#5 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

WARNING - This is the 11/09/23 CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuous notes added the following 12-16 hours altogether to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, new forecasts are published daily or twice a day to respond to new facts on the ground. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.

SUMMARY - This is the 15-min bar 7-day generic forecast for overall direction and shape for price action, with detailing for first 60 hours. Continuing from #4-4 and 7PM ET 11/08, price moved from 1949 to 1954 in a "manipulated curve" with 1:48 odds. After data-mining and reconciling with medium and long term charts, the data says either we just bottomed OR ARE VERY VERY CLOSE TO IT. Expectations are 1958 for Thursday and 1970 for Friday. AS LONG AS BOLD TREND LINE HOLDS, this rally is 8:2 or 9:1. In chart above, it's all blue for bulls and the darker blues are stronger vs light blues. I don't have time to add orange binaries (bear routes) this time. I have expounded on them in the last two week and will add notes soon to review them again.

NEXT WEEK IS SOOOOOOOOO MONEY - I see 1955 to 2055 Monday through Thursday, FULL STOP.

DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference but most importantly as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.

IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and continuous updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people YOU KNOW PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way you can help me make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers/readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I don't know why I keep trying.

Nota

BACKGROUND FOR THIS MOVE, FIRST REPLAY THIS POST FROM 10/09 NFP:
a) before you do zoom all the way out before you hit the play button
b) or hit the play button FOUR TIMES AND THEN ZOOM OUT, here:

PREPWORK FOR 23 HOURS ONLY, THROUGH 10/06

c) in this post, I had already foresaw the bottom at 1810 and the move to 2000 but I had the boxes WAY EARLY
d) near the bottom of that page I also had this chart, which showed a move to 2010 in just one week

e) it took 3 weeks but we hit 2008 a couple of times
f) read my thesis page to see how WE BEEN KILLING IT SINCE 9/12 when I started doing this daily or twice a day, but that's besides the point
g) the point is that IT TOOK 3 WEEKS, BUT HAD TO DO IT IN ONE WEEK
h) to regain bull position
i) long story short that leads us to this binary:

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j) so from #4-3, I asked which one did it look like?

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k) so now we are:

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l) in chart above
m) that's a wrap for tonight
o) not much action for Thursday
p) two spikes to 1958 and 1962

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q) save your energy and powder for Friday AND NEXT WEEK

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r) if you are going to trade to move to 1958 tomorrow:

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s) use a curve for your stops like chart above
t) I RECOMMEND SKIPPING TOMORROW
u) there's little value, an odds of a reversal down is not worth the 8 pts
v) just let it decide, and we will kill it come Thursday night

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3:18 AM ET 1945.68
a) just said right above here: "odds of a reversal down not worth 8 pts....
b) and we have that reversal down
c) it does not change out overall picture
d) I could see pushing everything back 24 hours, so the 1955 on Monday, would land RIGHT BEFORE CPI ON TUESDAY

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e) and of course, the inverse would be 1935 to 1835, 2 pts shy of closing the gap
f) just wait one more day, it can't hide forever

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8:37 AM ET IT'S NOT ACTIONABLE, 1946.84
1) there is no decision we can make here
2) and trust me, I've been watching, there's nothing to do
3) I have have the 7-day picture off by 1 day by the most
4) but it's saying, based on what we have, it wants mirror image
5) the tail end of the move is another low at 1940
6) either by drift or 2-way vol by stick save

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7) 8:00 AM ET, for 1950.xx, today is Thursday 11/09
8) between now and end of day on Monday 11/20, there will be a window of 80-100 straight hours...
9) where I will demo the ability to call prices continuously using 10 second bars
10) this is only worth doing if the move is - roughly speaking - 100 pts going one way
11) and again this what I meant by mirror image:

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12) chart above hi-lights you've seen several times in the last week
13) so think big picture, which one is it doing now?

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14) in the notes above I said it was in #4-3, but it's a typo
15) it's in #4-1 (link below), at the bottom I gave you this when it was still early

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16) and again from #4-4, yesterday, zoomed in VS WHAT I THOUGHT WAS HAPPENING:

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17) at that time I said, when price was in "THE MIDDLE", that we had "ZERO EVIDENCE" it's about to do
18) you would think there's a way to strongly guess days/weeks ahead, but you would be COMPLETELY WRONG
19) 100% PROOF: first replay out basis since 1610 (and we'll break this down should we get to 2080 again:

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MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6, I'M TOO SLOW

20) in chart above, replay shows that it hit 5 OF FIRST 6 boxes...
21) but then MIRROR IMAGE FOR 03/23 TO 06/23, then resumed pattern on 07/23
22) and yes, I can see the spike to 1953 just now, it's not what we are trading bc it's not worth the trouble
23) which leads us to:

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24) so in mid June, seeing the "mirror image" (after the third top at 2080, and you know what they say about tripple tops blah blah), I posted this "8 YEAR BEAR THESIS BLAH BLAH"
25)

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26) PLEASE PLEASE replay chart above for me to make my point
27) in chart above, it STARTED OFF at 1914 in the gray box..
28) hits FIRST 3 BULL BOXES, but then pulls mirror image by hitting..
29) NEXT 5 BEAR BOXES

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30) finally, 1957 now, as forecasted last night...

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31) if you read notes last night when it was 1950 BEFORE MOVING TO 1944.XX
32) I said I recommended SKIPPING TODAY bc the 8pts to 1958 was NOT worth the trouble of a reversal
33) THAT'S EXACTLY what happened...
34) and watching 10 second bars zig zag between 1949 and 1945 to nail the move to 1957... not worth the trouble especially when forecast STARTED OUT WRONG

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35) and for the people that follow "classical technical analysis" (and I am one, I will say that first),
36) if you think it's simply waiting for the "line to break", tell me which line:

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37) in chart above, it's only obvious now that it's all the way up...
38) could've been doing another 5 or 6 lines ALL THE WAY INTO TOMORROW
39) anyway that means we are here now:

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40) I'm working on something to be ready for the unexpected, so I didn't post anything just now
41) but if you replay chart at top, we are "correcting" the price action to 1944-45 over night...
42) essentially moving higher than 1958 to make up for it
43) so the plan is to go long this afternoon or tonight when the mean reversion check down happen (known as the 1-2 for in the elliot wave blah blah)

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44) I am sorry if that's the right time zone for you but it is what it is
45) a follower last night joked that, "don't I need sleep?"
46) I do, but the 8 year bear thesis you replayed above here...
47) in the in-between weekly posts, I TOTALLY WRONG around 8/01 , thinking it was going to break out
48) TOTALLLY WRONG AGAIN around 8/25
49) I got really tired of being SOOOOO RIGHT sometimes and yet SOOOOO WRONG other times
50) so since 9/12, I started doing this daily around the clock
51) I had said for 18 months before that in development that
52) only way to get IT ALL RIGHT (especially the inflections) is to WATCH ALL THE TIME
53) so here's 9/12 hitting 6 for first 6 boxes, strong path guidance, AND PERFECT PERFECT notes through 9/26

54) and I can't stress this enough for new readers
55) the chart is just big picture, THE NOTES ARE EVERYTHING
53) so:

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54) zoom all the way out when you replay that chart bc it's 22-min ba:
55) you will see that price is still behind or WEAKER vs. the breakout pattern of 2 MONTHS AGO
56) so in order to "get in position again" it has to move to 2120, with chart at top (THIS POST) being the first of 2 legs
57) here is the "thesis page" that covered all the posts from 1920 TO 180 AND ALL WAY BACK UP" as proof I've been nailing price action for 59 days straight:

THE MOST ACCURATE PRICE FORECAST IN THE WORLD THESIS

58) that ends the review of why we are moving to 2055 (or higher) by end of 11/17 (next Friday)
59) and also why we should WATCH OUR BACK for a bear route that will close the gap at 1832
60) I am not that guy that sticks to one thing all the time, and that gap does not have to close this year or next
61) but's it's a worrisome MASSIVE GAP that is evidence for the bear mirror image

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62) so I'm not going to post anything until the afternoon to deal with "the unexpected" as I said earlier bc this move to almost 1964, is way out of position already
63) we have to nail the next entry long

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64) similar to what experienced trades will tell you about the strong trades
65) they have to start off right
66) so in the last 2 weeks, if something is not right off the bat, I have scrapped it for a new one...
67) in order to have that first step be right
68) that is what I am doing now for #5-1

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69) 12:13 PM ET, I'll be honest here, this spike is SOO STRONG...
70) it pushed 1965 and it's holding 1963.xx as I type, my method is failing here to understand the momentum swing
71) I know that from 1958.xx to 63.xx is 5 pts not a big deal
72) BUT IT IS if it's fast AND IT'S HOLDING...
73) I mean remember last night when I said short 1951.75 W/ 1952.75 STOP?
74) all it took for me to change thesis (1900/1940 to 2055) was a move to 1954 and IT DIDN'T EVEN HOLD
75) so while I HATE FOMO... I have to tell you that the move that IT IS IMPLYING IS MUCH QUICKER than I can anticipate
76) so there's that, bc my method of charting is not a quick one

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77) so here's this bc I can't come out with something faster:

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78) chart above has all the blues in the last that are relevant that I can make in time
79) so obviously if gets any where near/under the black line is a strong buy
80) what I can't tell is if I need two boxes above or just one
81) if I have to choose, I choose the second one
82) but I have suspicion that bc of momentum, there will another surprise move up later tonight
83) that's all I can give you right now, I am out of time

Nota

84) 1:05 PM ET, SO HERE'S SOMETHING USEFUL UNTIL TONIGHT:

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a) chart above has checkdown coming
b) blues are favored RIGHT NOW at 75/25 VS FIELD while orange is 15/85, but FLIPS HARD under 1956...
c) so the odds are 1970 TONIGHT
d) so go long 1955-ish whatever it gives you
e) make a channel and the four points means RAISE YOUR STOPS
f) obviously 1954 for a good stop for longs 1956 for bears
g) these are estimates not real numbers bc it's not "there yet"
h) have a good one

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i) and for newbies, I don't actually know RIGHT NOW which one of these it is:

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j) and I don't have time to be stay live and add notes, THE MOVE NEXT WEEK is where the big money is
k) so that's my focus

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l) 2:38 PM ET THERE IT IS!

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2:40 PM ET: RAISE YOUR STOPS

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2:53 PM ET, LET'S REVIEW BC I DON'T HAVE TIME TO WRITE A #5-1:
1) big lines:

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2) and really that's it for the lines
3) 15 min bar:

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4) through Monday where you can be long vs where you can short:

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5) if you try shorting other spots.. that's on you
6)RIGHT NOW THOUGH...

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7) chart above shoes 2 events that ARE SERIOUS MONEY NEXT WEEK
8) so that's base case
9) I need to edit the blue route to make sure the ratios agree
10) I've already done that for big bars, so I'm confident we move to 2055
11) it's the HOW PRICE ACTS:
a) rest of today through Tuesday morning
b) and I know there are different types of trading styles
c) you'd be surprise to know I don't trade that much
d) but when I see 8:2, 9:1 big scenarios
e) I leverage up to make up for all the other small beans I miss

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12) not "shoes", hehe, shows

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13) what I am saying is, if you don't trade often, TUES-WED-THURS IS the time to do it
14) and if you don't do it, trading's not for you, it's not

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15) SUPPORT JUST BROKE at 1957.79... 3:44 PM ET
16) gotta get going, can't help you here
17) again UNDER THE ORANGE LINE.. BE SUSPICIOUS AF!!

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18) when I say support, I mean for the trade to 1970-74 tonight
19) otherwise, the orange line support right now is 1956.25

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20) typo 1956.65, if you need a good stop

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21) here's what 4-min bars are saying about this...
22) they going to be wide and annoying (slow and zig zag) with this move:

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4:00 PM ET, IT'S GOING TO 1953-54.... on 30 sec bars
a) this is SUSPICIOUS AF
b) be careful...

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c) 4:07 looks like we're going to battle for 1956.5 here for a while
d) WHICH IS GOOD!
e) bc going to 53-54... that's really suspicious...
f) suspicious enough to call off the the WHOLE THING AND WAIT IT OUT

Nota

g) so this part you need to be aware of when I declare stop, I've said this before from time to time
1) DEPEDING ON WHICH TICKER you trade, meaning FXOPEN, IDC, OANDA etc..
2) bid/ask varies all the time
3) my forecasting ticker is IDC XAUUSD bc it's got the most detailed pricing and volume history
4) but for trading I use FXOPEN XAUUSD bc its bid/ask are tighter
5) so when I said 1956.65 stop earlier, FXOPEN did NOT GET hit at 1956.89
6) BUT IDC did get hit at...

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7) 1956.5, this is bc of wider bid/ask

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8) will be back tonight with a finished #5-1 maybe after 10 PM ET

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6:00 PM ET 1958.xx
a) impressive aftermarket performance (not falling under 1956.5 means a move up before 7:00 PM
b) ultimately 1971-1974 late tonight very early Friday

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c) first target of 1968-1970 should hit betwen 11 PM ET and midnight

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d) but first move to 1961-62 looks like it will get shot down like this:

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e) should have #5-1 ahead of midnight ET

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f) a bit slow, but not terrible:

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8 pm on the high WAY, I know it's a bit slow.

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9:19 PM, TOO SLOW:

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9:43 PM ET 1957.12, A BIG CHANGE OF TREND HAPPEN WITH THAT BREAK.
a) I am not sure what it means

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b) that takes the move up out of the picture

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c) for tonight, we will see how long it holds the rest of the way

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d) so the odds of this move happening here:

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e) doesn't even seem real

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10:33 PM ET 1960.XX, it's going to be a fight all the way to end of Friday
a) so it just got shot down earlier
b) it is now going for round 2, will get shot down again
c) round 3, will get shot down even worse
d) then come NY OPEN and round 4, which will take the REST OF FRIDAY
e) I am working on what it should look like so it would be useful to you

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f) so Friday afternoon should feature a 1975 high, maybe more, we will see

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10:45 PM ET, price will hit 1965 tonight, maybe twice, maybe 3 times and none of it will stick
a) it should make the first move within 20 min

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b) I'll get #5-1 up for tomorrow only bc I just can't do it all in time

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11:14 PM, CAN'T GET THIS DETAILED CORRECTLY...
a) the math is disagreeing...
b) obviously something isn't right
c) I will post it when I get make sense of it

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11:24 PM ET 1958.20 TIME OUT
a) something is REALLY NOT RIGHT HERE
b) why are we are not spiking already?
c) I don't see it right now, I don't see why we are not higher
d) this makes me feel like a bull trap

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e) we are 4.5 pts off the bull the curve for this scenario
f) we HAVE NO REASON TO BE:

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11:37 PM ET. WHAT I MEAN BY SUSPICIOUS:
a) when price acts the opposite of expectations at a spot that it HAS NO REASON TO DO THAT IN
b) if everything is bullish, and price is 4.5 pts under expectations
c) that means our expectations ARE WRONG, the sooner we see it the better

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12:29 AM ET: HERE IT IS:

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a) I can write a life story to explain why
b) but I am tired AF from having to figure it out
c) basically, bulls had 3 chances with perfect setup to "shut the door" on a bear comeback
d) THEY DID NOT
e) now it's time they pay for hesitation!!
f) short this thing all the way to the box!!
g) REMEMBER: smallest bars and straight line discipline!!

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2:24 AM ET FRIDAY 11/10 - If you've been following me since 9/12. When I am suspicious of price action...
a) it is NOT the price that's the problem (price is not a person, it can't be wrong, it just is)
b) it is ME that's the problem because I have a view, and that view is either right or wrong
c) bc when I said at 1958.25 that it will start moving to 1965 in 20 min... (at 10:45 PM ET)
d) 30 min later it WASN'T doing that
e) and 40 min later it was 1957.25, THAT'S WAAYYYY WRONG
f) bc if I didn't say anything.. then nothing is wrong
g) but my math said TO SAY THAT, so I did
h) so either my math is wrong or I was wrong, same difference
i) back to drawing board
j) that's why said to SHORT ALL THE WAY TO THE BOX, maybe more

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3:28 AM ET 1956.85 HERE'S MY VIEW BEFORE I GO TO BED:

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a) there's two moves coming in next SEVEN HOURS
b) it is either move to 1975-1980 bull
c) or 1923-1932 bear
d) I'VE DONE THE MATH, it's 70/30 bear and here's how this works

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e) there are TWO ORANGE LINES in chart above
f) the light one is from chart I gave you a bit ago right above this one
g) the new dark orange one is new line adjusted FOR YOUR SAFETY
h) the STRATEGY here is simple AF
i) under the new bold orange line, you should short, bc bears are 70/30
j) especially under 1954 bears are 80/20
k) under 1952 bears are 90/10
l) THIS IS FOR THIS CURVE AND THE NEXT 7 HOURS ONLY

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m) mean while for bulls, long above 1958 OR
n) like in that chart, if price MOVES ABOVE DARK ORANGE LINE
o) then bounce after the checkdown, THAT IS OBVIOUSLY LONG
p) I just don't see it happening... I see 1940, 1932 maybe 1923
q) but I am easily swayed if you give me EVIDENCE
r) that's a wrap, good night

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s) but remember, AT THIS SECOND, it is bears 70/30...more like 75/25 bc it's 1955.40 as I type

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t) I swear I am going to bed but last one:

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u) 7:50 AM ET so here it is again:

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1) for chart above: I can't say anything bc I'm not even up yet, I'm going back to bed
2) just wanted to show you, that "curve" was NOT RANDOM
3) the other lines weren't either

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4) and no I didn't do the math to answer this question:

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8:30 AM ET, 1945.XX BOUNCING OFF 1943 THE SECOND TIIME
1) bulls only need 1948-1950 and hold for a couple of hours and a bottom may very well be in
2) but we don't have that yet

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10:55 PM FRIDAY WRAP UP, AND WAITING FOR #5-1
a) consider:

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b) so I haven't change the move to "2055" thesis...
c) it's going to have to be a a lower number though, no doubt
d) so here's zoom in:

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e) in chart above, dark blue is favorite
f) gray is favorite "on 15-30 second bars WHENEVER THERE'S 5 pt move up....
g) meaning the small bars are saying ANY TIME NOW....
h) but with setup... price likes to move ANNOYINGLY LOWER
i) like a washout... so:

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j) in chart above is 2 min bars
k) so orange hi light is the short pattern
l) with the caveat that THIS THING CAN POP ANYTIME...

Trade chiuso manualmente

m) on a side note, if you like my analysis, please help me MAKE MORE by
n) telling people you know personally
o) that would help me make more posts on different tickers with precise info only
p) and save you my life story...
q) I thank you so much ahead of time
r) otherwise, THIS POST HAS ENDED
s) I WILL POST #5-1 BEFORE SUNDAY OPEN

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t) "mirror image" routes make up a MAJOR MAJOR theme of my forecasts,
u) here is an example of mirror image on a slope
#3-5B - THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD
v) meanwhile, while I have #5-1 as bull reversal up consider:

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w) in chart above, light orange and light blue are same paths in the charts where I ask "which one is it doing?"
x) the dark orange I've had since yesterday afternoon but didn't post it
y) but the matters a lot see?
z) if I did make #5-1 with that new dark orange path, it would have been easier for you to see it from last night still at 1958.5
z1) so having 2-4 options BEFORE HAND are a good thing NOT A BAD THING

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z2) the link for #3-5B didn't work, use the #3-5C link below
z3 it's the same, except w/extra routes

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z4) NO IT'S NOT, so here:

#3-5B - THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

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Z5) preview

z6) chart above: watch out!! that orange elilpse is about to give... shorting is no longer recommended
z7) black route is BASE CASE... bull or bear who knows?

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1:45 PM ET: You can find this chart halfway up this page at where it says 12:29 AM:

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a) here's how it performed:

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b) I'm not saying I'm good bc/ I try hard AF (I sleep like 3-5 hours a day since 9/12)
c) but I haven't seen anyone else give this much attention to make sure...
d) that YOU HAVE THE RIGHT VIEW WHEN YOUR MONEY IS ON THE LINE....
e) that's why I put that curve out as risk management
f) bc I knew most people didn't like the call considering the chart I PUT OUT at the top of this page
g) but I don't care about thesis, I care about YOU WINNING
h) so that's another thing, especially for new readers..
i) the chart of the post (at top of each page) SOMETIMES DON''T MEAN ANYTHING
j) but my daily notes ARE EVERYTHING

Nota

11/11 12:xx AM ET, first replay chart at top:
a) zoom out a bit, another mirror image, see?
b) you will see this over and over and over,
c) I still haven't figured why that happens that frequently (I thought I did, not true)
d) otherwise,
e) THIS POST IS DEAD, HERE IS #5-1:

#5-1 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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