BTC swing short

2 apr 2018

Given the velocity of this pump, I'm inclined to draw my fibs as seen above. Reaction was perfect from the .382, which suits a very bullish impulse. I highlighted $7335: the -.618 extension, which is the 1:1 measured move from the impulse (.382+.618 = 1, who knew).


Looking left, this level acted as support and resistance; and was the bottom of the bearish orderblock which preceded the drop to the lows. Important to note is how price reacted from reaching it: violently. This indicates that this is a stronger level.


Further left, this was the previous low, to which price again reacted violently.

I have my stop just above the high volume node (HVN) on the volume profile (highlighted in blue). This will act to slow price momentum, and if price can break through this liquidity pool I'll consider the trade failed.

My target is a full retracement of this hypothesized second impulse. If this trade does trigger, I'll be watching price action to determine bias at that time.

If price retraces below 6760, I consider this setup void.


An alternative entry is at the bottom of the HVN, at support drawn from the 2h candle closes--$7390.

On a the daily momentum is bearish , on the hourly BTC 1.78% is ranging, and on the 15 minutes Chad has returned. With such mixed signals this is a riskier trade. But what can I say, I love shorting.

2 apr 2018

Nota

Bullish momentum has slowed, and BTC is once again trending sideways. This setup I've posted remains an opportunity to short previous support for just an initial rejection. This may be too risky given this tight consolidation not far below resistance, and the potential double pressure to the upside from bulls buying the breakout and bears' stops being triggered/positions being liquidated.

7230 area will likely have many short stops, and an ambitious breakout trader might long here the second this high gets taken out. The initial target here would be 7335, and the final take profit around 7.8k (in my opinion). Same goes if you're already long.

I'll be watching structure to determine other potential setups. Bullish divergence has appeared on the 6h. Expect rapid movement through the LVN.

3 apr 2018

Trade attivo

The pattern of this advance was pump->consolidation->pump. This increases the potential length of the impulse as mini supports are built and indicators cool off. This being a reversal trade, I wanted to catch a wick. When I saw price hit 7300 before consolidating I increased my entry to the bottom of the HVN I highlighted. 7390 turned out to be a local top, but BTC pumped once more and I added to my short around 7460 (catching wicks is ezpz with the vpvr!) Bearish divergence has appeared on the 15m and I anticipate a retracement. My targets are near 7330, 7250, and 7200. We may not even break back into the LVN below 7.3, but my stop's in profit.

I've technically been long since posting this (by holding btc), but I'll be considering longing contracts soon with a target around 7.8.