Bitcoin Daily Update (day 199)

15 set 2018

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: Identified resistance cluster from $6,67 - $6,887 that I believed will be the top of this bounce / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,539 | Weak S: $6,450
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks toppy with hanging man and then extended range.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0384%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is being tested for resistance | 26 = -2.05%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -4.28% | 128 = -7.53%
Volume: Declining volume while price rises on 1h
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,637 | 0.786 = $6,414
Candlestick analysis: Daily doji | 4h bearish engulfing tweezer top
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud providing resistance. Thick cloud with flat top says it will be strong from $6,500 - $6,750 | Add this to the resistance cluster mentioned in yesterday’s post
TD’ Sequential: Daily on a green 4. Top on the 4h 9 mentioned yesterday.
Visible Range: Looking back to February when we have continued to test this price makes the most sense and it shows the point of control at $6,514 and a high volume node up to $6,724
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.02% | 24h = - | 1w = +1.38% | 2w = -9.98% | 1m = +4.49%
Bollinger Bands: A return to the MA at $6,743 is to be expected after bouncing from the bottom band
Trendline: At this pace we will test the top of the descending triangle at $7,031
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up = $7,475 | Down = $6,065
On Balance Volume: Moving with price / no div’s
ADX: ADX fell below 25 indicating trendless market.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bouncing from oversold zones on weekly. Pulling back from overbought zones on daily.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.98 | D = 46.51
Stoch: Daily buy signal is trending up.

Summary: I am starting to think that we are going to see the price resist below the original cluster that I was looking at. I would be surprised if we break through that daily doji from yesterday. That is when I expected the rally to $6,700+

Instead we were unable to test $6,660 and now the 4 hour chart is showing serious signs of a top. The high volume sell off followed by the bearish engulfing tweezer top is a strong indication that we will continue down from here.

Nevertheless the shorts remain at all time high territory and are showing significant signs of a top themselves. Will be get one more squeeze that takes us to $6,700 - $6,800 or will we sell off from here? I would say it is about 55%:40% and 5% other.

Here is my ETH:USD chart. The pale red box is where I want to build my next short position. The dark red boxes are shorts that have been called on this blog.



I also have an order set to short EOS:BTC at 0.0007474 and I am 66% entered on my EOS:ETH short at 0.0252326. Click here for my EOS analysis.