ZM: Uncanny Feeling this is going to explode

l’altro ieri

Strategy Type: Debit Call Spread (defined risk, favorable skew)
Thesis: Price moving from $77 toward the $85–$93 liquidity zone

🧾 Setup Details (as of $77.76 spot)
📅 Expiry:
August 16, 2025 (standard monthly expiration – gives time for move to unfold post-earnings and macro catalysts)

⚙️ Structure:
Buy 80 Call @ ~$3.70
Sell 90 Call @ ~$1.10

Net Debit (Cost): ≈ $2.60 per spread
Max Profit: $10 spread - $2.60 cost = $7.40
Max Loss: $2.60
Break-Even: $82.60

📈 Profit Scenario
Stock Price @ Expiry P&L per spread
≤ $80 -100% loss (-$260)
$82.60 Break-even
$90 Max gain ($740 profit)
≥ $93.05 Full liquidity sweep – still capped at $90

🧮 Risk-Reward
R:R Ratio: 2.85:1

Probability of Profit (est.): ~42% (based on delta skew + chart breakout zones)

Implied Volatility Rank: Neutral-high (useful for buying debit spreads)

🛡️ Why Debit Spread?
Controlled risk — limited to your premium paid ($260)

Aligns with structure shift and price roadmap toward $85–$93

Selling 90C offsets premium and reduces theta decay

🪛 Adjustments
If ZM breaks above $80.65 with volume, consider adding a second spread or switching to long calls for momentum

If ZM fails to hold $75.72 key level, cut or hedge with short-dated puts (70P)

🔁 Alternate (More Aggressive) Play:
Buy August 85C outright

Cost ≈ $1.30

Break-even ≈ $86.30

Max reward: unlimited

Use if expecting strong earnings surprise or short squeeze

l’altro ieri

Nota

“This isn’t just a breakout... it’s a statement.”

While Zoom (ZM) might not serve you a cold Modelo, it is setting up for what looks like a momentum cocktail. 🍸

📈 Technical Ingredients:

Structure shift (CHoCH + BOS) ✔

Equilibrium retest holding like a seasoned bouncer 💪

Fair Value Gaps above like untouched premium bottles — just waiting to be uncorked

Fibonacci confirms – we’re not buying hype, we’re buying value in motion

💰 Fundamental Twist:

Zoom still prints FCF

Trading well below post-pandemic multiples

AI tailwinds may sound buzzy, but corporate adoption keeps flowing

🧠 So no, this isn’t a random Thursday trade. It’s a calculated entry with institutional footprints all over it.

If you needed an excuse to click “Buy” and call it “Smart Money Alignment” — you just got it.

Cheers to your next liquidity sweep 🍾
— WaverVanir International LLC