RTH Bias by @traderprimez

Tired of guessing the intraday direction? The RTH Bias indicator provides a powerful, data-driven statistical edge by analyzing the behavior of price after the initial Regular Trading Hours (RTH) range is set.

It meticulously tracks historical outcomes to show you the most probable "story" for the rest of the trading day.

This tool is designed for day traders of US indices, stocks, and other assets most active during the New York session. It moves beyond simple "opening range breakout" strategies by classifying each day into one of six distinct scenarios, giving you a much deeper insight into the day's potential character.

Core Concept
The opening period of the RTH session (e.g., the first one, two, or three hours) is dominated by high volume and institutional activity. The high and low established during this time often act as a critical pivot or springboard for the remainder of the day.

This indicator captures that initial range and then analyzes thousands of historical days to answer the key question: "Once the opening range is set, what happens next?" Does price tend to break out and trend? Does it fake out in one direction and reverse? Or does it stay trapped? The dashboard provides these probabilities at a glance.

Key Features
Choose the range that best fits your trading style and the asset you're trading:
09:30 - 10:30 (Micro): The classic, volatile first hour.
09:30 - 11:30 (Major): A broader range capturing the morning momentum.
09:30 - 12:30 (Macro): The full morning session, often defining the entire day's extremes.

📊 The Statistical Dashboard
This is the heart of the indicator. It provides a complete statistical breakdown of historical price action:

Scenario: The name of the price action profile.
Distribution: A visual bar chart showing the relative frequency of each scenario.
Count: The raw number of times each scenario has occurred over the lookback period.
Contribution: The percentage probability of each scenario occurring.

🎲 The Six Scenarios Explained
The indicator classifies each day's price action into one of these profiles:
↑ High, then ↓ Low (XAMD): A classic "stop hunt high, then sell-off." Price breaks the range high first, luring in buyers, before reversing to take the range low.
↓ Low, then ↑ High (XAMD): A classic "stop hunt low, then rally." Price breaks the range low first, stopping out sellers, before reversing to take the range high.
One-Sided Breakout (AMDX): A strong trend day. Price breaks only one side of the range and continues in that direction without ever violating the other side.
Search & Destroy (S&D): A volatile, choppy day. Price takes one side, reverses to take the other, and then reverses again.
No Breakout (Inside Day): A consolidation day. Price fails to break either the high or the low of the opening range.

🟩 On-Chart Bias Box
A simple visual aid that tracks the session in real-time:
Neutral (Gray): During Session 1, as the range is forming.
Bullish (Green): The Session 1 high has been broken.
Bearish (Red): The Session 1 low has been broken.
Both (Orange): Both the high and low have been broken (XAMD or S&D profile).

🛡️ RTH Guard Logic
This is a crucial feature for accuracy. The indicator locks in the day's scenario at the RTH close (e.g., 4 PM ET). This ensures that post-market (ETH) price action does not corrupt the historical statistics, giving you clean, reliable data based purely on regular trading hours.

🔔 Custom Alerts
Enable the "First Breakout" alert to be notified the moment the opening range is breached, so you don't have to watch the chart all day.

How to Use in Your Trading
This indicator does not give buy/sell signals. It provides a statistical framework to build a high-probability trading hypothesis for the day.

Select Your Range: In the settings, choose the opening range (Micro, Major, or Macro) you want to analyze.

Wait for the Range to Form: Let the neutral box fully form on your chart.

Analyze the Dashboard: Once the range is set, look at the "Contribution" column. Identify the scenario with the highest probability.

Form a Hypothesis: Build your trade idea around the most likely scenario.

Execute and Manage: You would wait for the box to turn red (low is broken). Instead of shorting, you would look for bullish confirmation (e.g., a market structure shift on a lower timeframe) to enter a long position, with the opening range high as a logical target.

Disclaimer: This indicator is a tool for analysis and probability assessment, not a standalone trading system. It should be used in conjunction with your own strategy and risk management. Past performance is not indicative of future results.