Simple Momentum Strategy Based on SMA, EMA and Volume

4 mag 2020

A simple, non short selling (long positions only, i.e. buy low and sell high) strategy. Strategy makes use of simple SMA, EMA and Volume indicators to attempt to enter the market at the most optimum time (i.e. when momentum and price are moving upwards). Optimum time is defined mainly by picking best timing for price moves higher based on upwards momentum.

This script is targeted / meant for an average/typical trader or investor. This is why a non short selling approach was selected for optimisation for this strategy because "typpical", "average" traders and investors usually use basic (i.e. minimum fees / free membership) exchanges that would not usually offer short selling functionality (at least without additional fees). The assumption used here is that only advanced and sophisticated traders and investors would pay for advanced trading platforms that enable short selling, have a risk appetite for short selling and thus use short selling as a strategy.

The results of the strategy are:

• In an overall roughly bearish market (backward testing from beginning to end of 2018) i.e. the market immediately following the highs of around 20k USD per BTC, this strategy made a loss of £3231 USD on trades of a maximum of 1 BTC per long position.
  
• But in an overall bullish market, it makes a profit of about $6800 USD from beginning of 2019 onwards by trading a maximum of 1 BTC per long position.
  

NOTE: All trading involves high risk. Most strategies use past performance and behaviour as indicators of future performance and that is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations too. One limitation is that unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading and since the trades have not actually been executed, the results of those trades themselves do not have any influence on actual market results, which in real life they would have had (no matter how minor). Additionally, simulated results may have under or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also, by their nature, designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.