[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Cyber Cycle Trading Strategy

28 ott 2020

Level: 2

Background

John F. Ehlers introuced Cyber Cycle Trading Strategy in his "Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures" chapter 4 on 2004.


Function

With cyber cycle alone, the Trigger lags the Cycle by one bar, so that their crossing introduces at least another bar of lag. Finally, Dr Ehler concluded that we can’t execute the trade until the bar after the signal is observed. In total, that means our trade execution will be at least four bars late. If we are working with an eight-bar cycle, that means the signal will be exactly wrong. We could do better to buy when the signal says sell, and vice versa.

The difficulties arising from the lag suggest a way to build an automatic trading strategy. Suppose we choose to use the trading signal in the opposite direction of the signal. That will work if we can introduce lag so the correct signal will be given in the more general case, not just the case of an eight-bar cycle. Therefore, the Cyber Cycle trading strategy was introduced by Dr. Ehlers. It starts exactly the same as the Cyber Cycle Indicator. Dr. Ehlers then introduce the variable Signal, which is an exponential moving average of the Cycle variable. The exponential moving average generates the desired lag in the trading signal. The relationship between the alpha of an exponential moving average and lag is alpha2 = 1/ (Lag+1). This relationship is used to create the variable alpha2 in the code and the variable Signal using the exponential moving average. The trading signals using the variable Signal crossing itself delayed by one bar are exactly the opposite of the trading signals I would have used if there were no delay. But, since the variable Signal is delayed such that the net delay is less than half a cycle, the trading signals are correct to catch the next cyclic reversal. The idea of betting against the correct direction by waiting for the next cycle reversal can be pretty scary because that reversal may “never” happen because the market takes off in a trend. For this reason Dr. Ehlers included two lines of code that are escape mechanisms if we were wrong in our entry signal. These last two Signal lines of code reverse the trading position if we have been in the trade for more than eight bars and the trade has an open position loss.

Key Signal

Cycle ---> Cyber Cycle fast line
Cycle (2) ---> Cyber Cycle slow line
Signal ---> Trading signal fast line
Signal(1) ---> Trading signal slow line


Pros and Cons

100% John F. Ehlers definition translation of original work, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book. If you had read his works, then you will be quite familiar with my code style.

Remarks

The 25th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.

Readme

In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.

The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.

Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.

Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.

Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.

Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.

Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.