Mayer Mutiple | QR

Mayer Multiple | QR — Publication Description

What it does
Mayer Multiple | QR is a cycle/valuation style oscillator that measures how far price sits above or below its longer-term average and normalizes that distance by current volatility. It helps you spot overheated extensions and deep discounts relative to trend, with adaptive bands that expand/contract as conditions change.

How it works (principle)
The script compares price to a long lookback moving average (default uses a 200-period average of ohlc4) and turns that gap into an oscillator.
It then computes a rolling standard deviation of that oscillator to build dynamic upper/lower bands (±1σ, ±2σ, ±3σ).
When the oscillator rises above the upper bands, the move is statistically stretched (potential distribution/risk). When it falls below the lower bands, it’s statistically depressed (potential accumulation/opportunity).
A small baseline band around zero (scaled from volatility) provides a quick trend-bias read without crowding the view.
Why this matters: Classic “Mayer Multiple” tools use a fixed threshold over a single moving average. This version is volatility-aware: its bands adapt to the market’s current dispersion, reducing false signals in quiet regimes and avoiding constant “overheat” flags in high-vol regimes.
What you see on the chart
White oscillator line: volatility-normalized deviation from the long-term average.

Adaptive bands:
Upper 1/2/3σ (shaded blue tones) = progressively more extended.
Lower 1/2/3σ (shaded green tones) = progressively more discounted.
Baseline ribbon: subtle band around zero for quick bias.
Background highlights: optional flashes when the oscillator exceeds the ±3σ extremes.
All visuals are generated by this script alone; no other indicator is required to understand usage.

How to use it
Context: Use on higher timeframes to gauge where price sits versus its long-term “fair value corridor.”

Signal reading:
Above +1σ/+2σ/+3σ: extension → consider de-risking, trailing stops, or waiting for mean reversion.
Below −1σ/−2σ/−3σ: discount → consider scaling in, watching for trend resumption cues.
Confluence: Treat it as a condition, not a trigger. Pair with structure (higher highs/lows), breadth, or momentum for entries/exits.
Regime awareness: As volatility rises, bands widen; prioritize trend context over single print extremes.
Inputs you can tune

Color mode: preset palettes for lines/fills/backgrounds.
Dynamic Threshold Length: lookback for the volatility (σ) calculation driving the adaptive bands.
Source: price input used for the long-term reference.
Band toggles: show/hide ±1σ / ±2σ / ±3σ envelopes to reduce clutter.

Originality & value
Adaptive, volatility-aware implementation of a Mayer-style concept: rather than one fixed threshold, it scales to current regime, keeping readings comparable across cycles.
Clear, clean presentation (oscillator + bands + optional background) designed for publication with a clean chart so the script’s output is immediately identifiable.
Offers actionable context (stretch/discount zones) while leaving trade execution to the user’s process.

Limitations & good practices
Best used for context and risk framing, not stand-alone entries.
Adaptive bands depend on the lookback you choose; very short windows can overfit, very long windows can lag.
Extremes can persist in strong trends—don’t fade momentum blindly.

Disclaimer
This tool is for research and education only and not investment advice. Markets involve risk. Past performance does not predict or guarantee future results. Use prudent risk management and test settings on your instruments/timeframes.