OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Market to NAV Premium Arbitrage Alpha Indicator
MARKET TO NAV PREMIUM ARBITRAGE ALPHA INDICATOR
A quantitative tool for identifying statistical mispricings between market capitalization and net asset value (NAV), designed specifically for arbitrage strategies and alpha generation in Bitcoin-holding companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR), companies or SPACS used mostly to hold crypto, Bitcoin ETFs, and other NAV-based instruments. Can probably be also used in certain spin-offs.
📊 KEY FEATURES:
✅ Real-time Premium/Discount Calculation
• Automatically retrieves market cap data from TradingView
• Calculates precise NAV based on underlying asset holdings
• Formula: (Market Cap - NAV) / NAV × 100
✅ Statistical Analysis Framework
• Historical percentile rankings (customizable lookback period)
• Standard deviation bands (2σ) for extreme value detection
• Smoothing options to reduce noise
✅ Multi-Source Market Cap Detection
• Priority system: TradingView data → Calculated → Manual override
• Automatic fallback mechanisms for data reliability
✅ Advanced NAV Modeling
• Basic NAV: Asset holdings + cash
• Adjusted NAV: Includes software business value, debt, preferred shares. If the company has a lot of this kind of intrinsic value, put it in the "cash" field
• Support for any underlying asset (BTC, ETH, etc.)
📈 TRADING APPLICATIONS:
🎯 Pairs Trading Signals
• Long/Short opportunities when premium reaches statistical extremes
• Mean reversion strategies based on historical ranges
• Risk-adjusted position sizing using percentile ranks
🎯 Arbitrage Detection
• Identifies when market pricing significantly deviates from fair value
• Quantifies the magnitude of mispricing for profit potential
• Historical context for timing entry/exit points
🔧 CONFIGURATION OPTIONS:
• Underlying Asset: Any symbol (default: COINBASE:BTCUSD) NEED MANUAL INPUT
• Asset Quantity: Precise holdings amount. NEED MANUAL INPUT
• Cash Holdings: Additional liquid assets. NEED MANUAL INPUT
• Market Cap Mode: Auto-detect, calculated, or manual
• Advanced Adjustments: Business value, debt, preferred shares
• Display Settings: Lookback period, smoothing, custom colors
🎯 PERFECT FOR:
• Quantitative traders focused on statistical arbitrage
• Institutional investors monitoring NAV-based instruments
• Bitcoin ETF and MSTR traders seeking alpha generation
• Risk managers tracking premium/discount exposures
• Academic researchers studying market efficiency (as you can see, markets are not efficient 😉)
🔗 CONNECT & SUPPORT:
Follow for updates and additional quantitative trading tools. Feedback and suggestions welcome!
A quantitative tool for identifying statistical mispricings between market capitalization and net asset value (NAV), designed specifically for arbitrage strategies and alpha generation in Bitcoin-holding companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR), companies or SPACS used mostly to hold crypto, Bitcoin ETFs, and other NAV-based instruments. Can probably be also used in certain spin-offs.
📊 KEY FEATURES:
✅ Real-time Premium/Discount Calculation
• Automatically retrieves market cap data from TradingView
• Calculates precise NAV based on underlying asset holdings
• Formula: (Market Cap - NAV) / NAV × 100
✅ Statistical Analysis Framework
• Historical percentile rankings (customizable lookback period)
• Standard deviation bands (2σ) for extreme value detection
• Smoothing options to reduce noise
✅ Multi-Source Market Cap Detection
• Priority system: TradingView data → Calculated → Manual override
• Automatic fallback mechanisms for data reliability
✅ Advanced NAV Modeling
• Basic NAV: Asset holdings + cash
• Adjusted NAV: Includes software business value, debt, preferred shares. If the company has a lot of this kind of intrinsic value, put it in the "cash" field
• Support for any underlying asset (BTC, ETH, etc.)
📈 TRADING APPLICATIONS:
🎯 Pairs Trading Signals
• Long/Short opportunities when premium reaches statistical extremes
• Mean reversion strategies based on historical ranges
• Risk-adjusted position sizing using percentile ranks
🎯 Arbitrage Detection
• Identifies when market pricing significantly deviates from fair value
• Quantifies the magnitude of mispricing for profit potential
• Historical context for timing entry/exit points
🔧 CONFIGURATION OPTIONS:
• Underlying Asset: Any symbol (default: COINBASE:BTCUSD) NEED MANUAL INPUT
• Asset Quantity: Precise holdings amount. NEED MANUAL INPUT
• Cash Holdings: Additional liquid assets. NEED MANUAL INPUT
• Market Cap Mode: Auto-detect, calculated, or manual
• Advanced Adjustments: Business value, debt, preferred shares
• Display Settings: Lookback period, smoothing, custom colors
🎯 PERFECT FOR:
• Quantitative traders focused on statistical arbitrage
• Institutional investors monitoring NAV-based instruments
• Bitcoin ETF and MSTR traders seeking alpha generation
• Risk managers tracking premium/discount exposures
• Academic researchers studying market efficiency (as you can see, markets are not efficient 😉)
🔗 CONNECT & SUPPORT:
Follow for updates and additional quantitative trading tools. Feedback and suggestions welcome!
Script open-source
In pieno spirito TradingView, il creatore di questo script lo ha reso open-source, in modo che i trader possano esaminarlo e verificarne la funzionalità. Complimenti all'autore! Sebbene sia possibile utilizzarlo gratuitamente, ricorda che la ripubblicazione del codice è soggetta al nostro Regolamento.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Script open-source
In pieno spirito TradingView, il creatore di questo script lo ha reso open-source, in modo che i trader possano esaminarlo e verificarne la funzionalità. Complimenti all'autore! Sebbene sia possibile utilizzarlo gratuitamente, ricorda che la ripubblicazione del codice è soggetta al nostro Regolamento.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.